Polymarket Trader

0xec4d...be21

0xec4ddb228b18c52b1093cf43b1b834584450be21

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $1.34K
Realized PnL: -$0.05
Win rate: 0%
Open positions: 22
Closed positions: 1
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Ends Jul 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $74.48
Potential payout: $4.66K
Potential profit: $4.58K
Multiplier: 62.50x
User PnL: -$437.58

No position

Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Ends Jul 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $51.21
Potential payout: $3.94K
Potential profit: $3.89K
Multiplier: 76.92x
User PnL: -$460.86

Yes position

Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Ends Jul 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $41.08
Potential payout: $2.22K
Potential profit: $2.18K
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: -$269.82

No position

Will Bev Craig win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?

Ends Jul 30, 2026

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $109.08
Potential payout: $1.82K
Potential profit: $1.71K
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: -$127.26

No position

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?

Ends Aug 4, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $212.17
Potential payout: $1.29K
Potential profit: $1.07K
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: $45.01

Yes position

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $108.51
Potential payout: $700.09
Potential profit: $591.58
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$3.5

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $99.21
Potential payout: $640.08
Potential profit: $540.86
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$28.8

Yes position

Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 48.5%
Current value: $194.02
Potential payout: $400.05
Potential profit: $206.02
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: $2

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $125.12
Potential payout: $263.41
Potential profit: $138.29
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: -$17.12

No position

Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?

Ends Aug 4, 2026

Implied probability: 17%
Current value: $43.69
Potential payout: $257
Potential profit: $213.31
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: $2.57

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 61%
Current value: $138.51
Potential payout: $227.06
Potential profit: $88.55
Multiplier: 1.64x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 22.5%
Current value: $50.85
Potential payout: $226
Potential profit: $175.15
Multiplier: 4.44x
User PnL: $1.13

No position

Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $16.1
Potential payout: $92
Potential profit: $75.9
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $0.46

Yes position

Will Shenna Bellows be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?

Ends Jul 27, 2026

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $16.98
Potential payout: $87.08
Potential profit: $70.1
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: $0.44

No position

Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?

Ends Jul 24, 2026

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $18.13
Potential payout: $68.42
Potential profit: $50.29
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: $0.34

Yes position

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $64 in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 28%
Current value: $15.96
Potential payout: $57
Potential profit: $41.04
Multiplier: 3.57x
User PnL: $0.57

No position

Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Aug 4, 2026

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $7.28
Potential payout: $56
Potential profit: $48.72
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: $0.56

Yes position

Will Russia enter Serhiivka by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 21%
Current value: $9.19
Potential payout: $43.78
Potential profit: $34.59
Multiplier: 4.76x
User PnL: $0.88

Yes position

Iran full airspace closure by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $4.5
Potential payout: $15.78
Potential profit: $11.28
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: $1.5

Yes position

Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 105m?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 24.2%
Current value: $2.42
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $7.59
Multiplier: 4.14x
User PnL: $0.79

No position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $3.63
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $1.38
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $0.38

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 23%
Current value: $0.77
Potential payout: $3.33
Potential profit: $2.56
Multiplier: 4.35x
User PnL: $0.07

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 32.8%
Multiplier: 3.05x
User PnL: -$0.05

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

No 65% 5 shares
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Yes 48% 15 shares
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in July?

Yes 16% 700.09 shares
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?

Yes 20% 115.5 shares
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?

No 16% 257 shares
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?

No 54% 22.24 shares
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?

Yes 19% 15.78 shares
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by July 31?

Yes 19% 37.61 shares
Will Bev Craig win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?

No 13% 130 shares
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?

No 26% 50 shares
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?

Yes 22% 208 shares
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?

No 13% 1,235.88 shares