No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.5%
- Current value
- $405.09
- Potential payout
- $420
- Potential profit
- $14.91
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $19.89
Polymarket Trader
southbets
0xec4e8e525969c4b9072eed0193e587b73876d9db
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.66K
- Realized PnL
- $1.16K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 10
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $177
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $23
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $3
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.8%
- Current value
- $183.92
- Potential payout
- $190
- Potential profit
- $6.08
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $14.82
No position
John Ratcliffe out as CIA Director by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $130.13
- Potential payout
- $182
- Potential profit
- $51.87
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- -$32.8
No position
US recession by end of 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $154.88
- Potential payout
- $175
- Potential profit
- $20.13
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $0.88
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $158.96
- Potential payout
- $160
- Potential profit
- $1.04
- User PnL
- $14.05
No position
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $155.82
- Potential payout
- $157
- Potential profit
- $1.18
- User PnL
- $2.9
N
No position
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $95.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $4.5
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $3.5
No position
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $95.85
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $4.15
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- -$0.15
No position
Will Hunter Biden announce a Delaware Senate run by July 14?
Ends Jul 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Current value
- $98.55
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $1.45
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- -$0.05
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will anyone say "President" or "Trump" 25+ times during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?
Ends Oct 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $107.85
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100.25
Yes position
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference?
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $77.82
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.5
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.21
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57.6
No position
Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.93
No position
Trump's travel ban removed by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.58
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.37
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?
Ends Dec 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.22
Yes position
Grokipedia released by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.72
No position
Will "The Epstein Files" reach #1 on Apple Podcast by March 15?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.91
No position
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.29
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.76
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7?
Ends Nov 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.7
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.12
No position
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.78
No position
Epstein "I beat Bush" Email unredacted by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.29
No position
Brown University shooter arrested by December 19?
Ends Dec 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.22
No position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.09
No position
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 15?
Ends Dec 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.98
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?
Ends Nov 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.97
No position
Iran leadership change by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.5
No position
Martin Nowak out as Harvard professor by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.82
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No 87% 200 shares
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?No 92% 100 shares
- Nick Fuentes federally charged?No 95% 260 shares
- Dan Driscoll out as Secretary of the Army by June 30?No 99% 5 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 99.9% 200 shares
- Will Hunter Biden announce a Delaware Senate run by July 14?No 98.6% 100 shares
- Dan Driscoll out as Secretary of the Army by June 30?No 97% 50 shares
- Dan Driscoll out as Secretary of the Army by June 30?No 96% 10.99 shares
- Dan Driscoll out as Secretary of the Army by June 30?No 95% 5.7 shares
- Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No 99% 5 shares
- Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?No 83% 20 shares
- Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?No 82% 25 shares