N
No position
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 24%
- Current value
- $68.85
- Potential payout
- $286.86
- Potential profit
- $218.01
- Multiplier
- 4.17x
- User PnL
- -$31.15
Polymarket Trader
0xecd1...4c52
0xecd1b1489370b50359df68e126fff0618d4c4c52
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $285.19
- Realized PnL
- $301.82
- Win rate
- 83.3%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 18
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $196.08
- Potential profit
- $196.08
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $101.63
- Potential profit
- $101.63
- User PnL
- -$50
No position
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $84.75
- Potential profit
- $84.75
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 71%
- Current value
- $50
- Potential payout
- $70.42
- Potential profit
- $20.42
- Multiplier
- 1.41x
- User PnL
- -$0
No position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $66.67
- Potential profit
- $66.67
- User PnL
- -$50
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $57.67
- Potential payout
- $66.67
- Potential profit
- $9
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $7.67
No position
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $48.44
- Potential payout
- $62.5
- Potential profit
- $14.06
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- -$1.56
Yes position
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $60.24
- Potential payout
- $60.24
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $10.24
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $24.87
- Potential profit
- $24.87
- User PnL
- -$16.66
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $23.46
- Potential profit
- $23.46
- User PnL
- -$16.66
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $125.81
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.15
Yes position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.72
No position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.37
No position
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.43
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.42
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.36
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.1
No position
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.1
No position
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.28x
- User PnL
- $13.01
No position
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.56
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.41
No position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- $4.32
No position
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.03
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $1.81
Yes position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$7.5
Yes position
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$8
Yes position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$42.28
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?No 80% 62.5 shares
- Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?Yes 71% 70.42 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?No 34.9% 286.86 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 99.6% 327.11 shares
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?No 75% 66.67 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 78% 64.1 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 78% 64.1 shares
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?No 59% 84.75 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?Yes 52% 96.15 shares
- Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?No 78% 64.1 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?No 71% 70.42 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No 86% 60.23 shares