arleclec

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$2.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$2.5

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$2.5

No position

Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?

Implied probability: 6.6%
Current value: $9.1
Potential payout: $138.89
Potential profit: $129.79
Multiplier: 15.27x
User PnL: $4.1

No position

SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $113.98
Potential profit: $113.98
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2026

Implied probability: 6.6%
Current value: $6.68
Potential payout: $101.2
Potential profit: $94.52
Multiplier: 15.15x
User PnL: $1.68

No position

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $4.79
Potential payout: $84.75
Potential profit: $79.96
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: -$0.21

No position

Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $84.75
Potential profit: $84.75
User PnL: -$5

No position

Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $84.23
Potential profit: $84.23
User PnL: -$5

No position

SpaceX IPO: Officially added to Nasdaq-100 in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.52
Potential payout: $69.99
Potential profit: $69.47
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$1.69

No position

Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $52.08
Potential profit: $52.08
User PnL: -$5

No position

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $5.56
Potential payout: $50.5
Potential profit: $44.95
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: $0.56

No position

Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $5
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $45
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: $0

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $7.95
Potential payout: $45.45
Potential profit: $37.5
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $2.95

No position

Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?

Implied probability: 4.9%
Current value: $1.93
Potential payout: $39.47
Potential profit: $37.54
Multiplier: 20.41x
User PnL: -$0.58

No position

Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $0.49
Potential payout: $36.54
Potential profit: $36.05
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$4.51

No position

Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $15
User PnL: -$0.9

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 32%
Current value: $4.7
Potential payout: $14.7
Potential profit: $10
Multiplier: 3.13x
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.88
Potential profit: $13.88
User PnL: -$9.85

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.36
Potential profit: $11.36
User PnL: -$2.95

Up position

Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $11.11
User PnL: -$3.33

Yes position

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $10.42
Potential payout: $10.5
Potential profit: $0.08
User PnL: $0.43

Up position

XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.41
Potential profit: $10.41
User PnL: -$5

Up position

Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$4.9

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.64

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
User PnL: $7.83

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.44

Up position

XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.4

Down position

Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.11

Down position

XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.75

Down position

XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.09

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5

Up position

XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5

Down position

XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.26

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.77

Up position

Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.69

Up position

Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.62

Up position

XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.51

Up position

Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.33

No position

Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.3

Down position

Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.26

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.19

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.19

Up position

XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.19

Jordan position

Spread: Algeria (-1.5)

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.14

Under position

Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.14

Yes position

Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.14

Up position

Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET