Yes position
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 41.5%
- Current value
- $1.17
- Potential payout
- $2.82
- Potential profit
- $1.65
- Multiplier
- 2.41x
- User PnL
- -$0.83
Polymarket Trader
aberdo
0xed686eb2da685fc9271d46e713f80bd69906ea90
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.17
- Realized PnL
- $3.1
- Win rate
- 79.2%
- Open positions
- 1
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.65
No position
Will Sinners win Best Motion Picture – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?
Ends Jan 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.08
Yes position
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.59
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.14
Yes position
Will Trump say 'tariff' 5+ times times during the 2025 State of the Union?
Ends Mar 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.08
Yes position
Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80 and 84?
Ends May 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.21
Yes position
Will Donald Trump say "Crypto" 5+ times during Crypto Summit on Friday?
Ends Mar 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.11
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?
Ends Mar 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.08
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?
Ends Jul 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.08
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.08
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.07
No position
Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on April 9?
Ends Apr 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 23–30?
Ends May 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.02
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 28 - March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.01
No position
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times April 4 - 11?
Ends Apr 11, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.01
No position
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on March 30?
Ends Apr 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Randy Fine win by 10-15%?
Ends Apr 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Donald Trump say "Crypto" 10+ times during Crypto Summit on Friday?
Ends Mar 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.39
Yes position
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.41
No position
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 28 - April 4?
Ends Apr 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Over position
Games Total: O/U 3.5
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Will Marek Jakubiak be the next President of Poland?
Ends May 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$2.55
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?Yes 71% 2.82 shares
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2Bilibili Gaming 80% 6.21 shares
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes 75.9% 6.59 shares
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No 98.6% 7.62 shares
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over 79% 2.53 shares
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?Yes 98.4% 4.07 shares
- Will Sinners win Best Motion Picture – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?No 45% 3.78 shares
- Will Sinners win Best Motion Picture – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes 56% 7.14 shares
- Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30?Yes 92% 24.84 shares
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?Yes 95% 22.85 shares
- No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?Yes 96.8% 2.36 shares
- Another US military action against Iran by June 30?Yes 23% 19.6 shares