Daviddu0813

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $2.29K
Potential payout: $2.49K
Potential profit: $199.33
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $198.5

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $2.04K
Potential payout: $2.04K
Potential profit: $3.06
User PnL: $51.85

No position

Xi Jinping out by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $1.85K
Potential payout: $1.85K
Potential profit: $0.92
User PnL: $40.61

No position

China coup attempt before 2027?

Implied probability: 96.6%
Current value: $1.67K
Potential payout: $1.73K
Potential profit: $59.61
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: -$8.5

No position

China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $1.39K
Potential payout: $1.49K
Potential profit: $96.76
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $63.59

No position

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $1.46K
Potential payout: $1.46K
Potential profit: $0.73
User PnL: $72.44

No position

NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $1.15K
Potential payout: $1.16K
Potential profit: $5.22
User PnL: $31.76

No position

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

Implied probability: 95.7%
Current value: $880.56
Potential payout: $920.61
Potential profit: $40.05
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $4.56

No position

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $649.85
Potential payout: $687.67
Potential profit: $37.82
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $49.85

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $499.75
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $0.25
User PnL: $54.75

Yes position

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $349.22
Potential payout: $349.39
Potential profit: $0.17
User PnL: $28.63

No position

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $295.17
Potential payout: $322.59
Potential profit: $27.42
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $9.17

No position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Implied probability: 95.9%
Current value: $287.7
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $12.3
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $9

No position

Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $237.04
Potential payout: $287.32
Potential profit: $50.28
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $12.89

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $199.3
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $0.7
User PnL: $35.3

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $173
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $27
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $23

Yes position

US x China tariff agreement by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $175
Potential profit: $175
User PnL: -$82.25

No position

Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $158.03
Potential payout: $159.87
Potential profit: $1.84
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $29.08

No position

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

Implied probability: 96.5%
Current value: $122.15
Potential payout: $126.58
Potential profit: $4.43
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $22.15

No position

Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $123.47
Potential payout: $123.53
Potential profit: $0.06
User PnL: $2.29

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $116.93
Potential payout: $122.44
Potential profit: $5.51
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $16.93

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 94.6%
Current value: $106.24
Potential payout: $112.36
Potential profit: $6.12
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $6.24

No position

Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $98.28
Potential payout: $112.32
Potential profit: $14.04
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $9.17

No position

Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $64.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $35.5
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: $3.5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $445.17

Yes position

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $319.67

Yes position

Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $247.19

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $204.55

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $156

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.64

Yes position

Will Putin visit China by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.69

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.21

No position

Will India strike Pakistan by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.82

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.56

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21

No position

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.28

No position

Epstein suicide note released by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.95

Yes position

Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6

Yes position

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.28

Yes position

Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 12?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET

Ends Mar 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.83

Yes position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.78

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.11

No position

Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?