Polymarket Trader

Fourth20hokage

0xed7d6fc69cc384a15dbebe4527cddfcdddbc5852

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $2.37K
Realized PnL: $4.63K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 13
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $1.33K
Potential payout: $1.74K
Potential profit: $410.02
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $79.76

Yes position

Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $20.71
Potential payout: $1.43K
Potential profit: $1.41K
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: $0.72

Yes position

Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $18.13
Potential payout: $1.25K
Potential profit: $1.23K
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$1.88

Yes position

Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.21K
Potential profit: $1.21K
User PnL: -$6

No position

Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $926.88
Potential payout: $1.01K
Potential profit: $86.1
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $156.89

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $35.27
Potential payout: $373.22
Potential profit: $337.95
Multiplier: 10.58x
User PnL: -$14.73

Ilia Topuria position

UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $280.87
Potential profit: $280.87
User PnL: -$90

Yue Yuan position

Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yuan

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $83.33
User PnL: -$10

Pakistan position

ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $66.67
Potential profit: $66.67
User PnL: -$6

Aoi Ito position

Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $55.53
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$14.97

Alex Pereira position

UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40.82
Potential profit: $40.82
User PnL: -$20

No position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 95.4%
Current value: $35.78
Potential payout: $37.5
Potential profit: $1.73
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $5.77

Cincinnati Reds position

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $26.32
Potential profit: $26.32
User PnL: -$5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Knicks position

Cavaliers vs. Knicks

Ends May 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $670.89

Knicks position

Knicks vs. Spurs

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $609.21

Yes position

Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $537.15

Spurs position

Spurs vs. Thunder

Ends Dec 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $506.1

Knicks position

Spurs vs. Knicks

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $307.05

Knicks position

Knicks vs. Spurs

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $255.69

Bills position

Bills vs. Patriots

Ends Dec 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $220.24

Gaethje position

UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $189.87

Texans position

Texans vs. Chiefs

Ends Dec 8, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $148.73

Grizzlies position

Grizzlies vs. Clippers

Ends Dec 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $143.66

Chargers position

Chargers vs. Chiefs

Ends Dec 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $139.8

Vikings position

Vikings vs. Cowboys

Ends Dec 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $133.55

Silva position

UFC 324: Namajunas vs. Silva (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $117.11

Kings position

Rockets vs. Kings

Ends Dec 22, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $97.65

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - January 3, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET

Ends Jan 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70.91

Raptors position

Raptors vs. Heat

Ends Dec 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.61

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

Ends Jan 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.64

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 94.9%
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $52.08

Bulls position

Magic vs. Bulls

Ends Jan 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.35

Yes position

Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.22

Under position

Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 247.5

Ends Dec 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50

Knicks position

Spread: Spurs (-5.5)

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.86

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET

Ends Jan 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.82

No position

Will Trump say "Tariff" 15+ times during Pennsylvania events on December 9?

Ends Dec 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.6

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 13.4% 373.22 shares
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 1.6% 1,250 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

No 80% 37.5 shares
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?

Yes 54.6% 36.61 shares
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?

Yes 77% 909.09 shares
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?

Yes 76% 263.05 shares
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?

Yes 67.3% 148.49 shares
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?

Yes 36.6% 27.32 shares
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ilia Topuria 26% 115.38 shares
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ilia Topuria 24% 83.33 shares
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ilia Topuria 34.9% 28.68 shares
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ilia Topuria 45% 22.22 shares