Polymarket Trader

Clarence333

0xee4fa6f3516ff02a9bc44d8c86a767283197b168

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $483.06
Realized PnL: $171.73
Win rate: 66.7%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $7.74
Potential payout: $573.17
Potential profit: $565.43
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$26.15

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $44.27
Potential payout: $354.2
Potential profit: $309.92
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$55.73

Yes position

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $3.87
Potential payout: $309.47
Potential profit: $305.61
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$2.01

Yes position

Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $258.37
Potential profit: $258.37
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.24
Potential payout: $243.21
Potential profit: $242.97
Multiplier: 1000.00x
User PnL: -$9.76

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $10.71
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $132.14
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: $0.71

Yes position

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $5.54
Potential payout: $138.52
Potential profit: $132.98
Multiplier: 25.00x
User PnL: -$4.46

Yes position

Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $98.95
Potential payout: $122.92
Potential profit: $23.97
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $16.41

No position

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $113.86
Potential payout: $120.48
Potential profit: $6.63
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $13.86

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 20.6%
Current value: $23.96
Potential payout: $116.32
Potential profit: $92.36
Multiplier: 4.85x
User PnL: -$7.04

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $15.66
Potential payout: $116
Potential profit: $100.34
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$9.86

Yes position

James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $5
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $106.11
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $2.82
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $108.29
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: -$7.18

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 20.4%
Current value: $21.85
Potential payout: $107.14
Potential profit: $85.3
Multiplier: 4.90x
User PnL: -$8.15

Yes position

Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?

Ends Jul 5, 2026

Implied probability: 52.5%
Current value: $50.48
Potential payout: $96.15
Potential profit: $45.67
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: $0.48

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $14.09
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $76.82
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $4.09

Yes position

Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $12.27
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $78.64
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: $2.27

Yes position

No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $10.45
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $80.45
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: $0.45

Yes position

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $4.14
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $86.77
Multiplier: 21.98x
User PnL: -$5.86

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 18.7%
Current value: $15.94
Potential payout: $85.47
Potential profit: $69.53
Multiplier: 5.36x
User PnL: $5.94

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $76.92
Potential profit: $76.92
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 34.2%
Current value: $21.21
Potential payout: $62.11
Potential profit: $40.9
Multiplier: 2.93x
User PnL: $11.21

Yes position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $57.69
Potential profit: $57.69
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $55.56
User PnL: -$10

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $112.53

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.46

Xinxin Yao position

Jiujiang: Lanlana Tararudee vs Xinxin Yao

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.76

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.49

Yes position

US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.49

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.86

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.66

Yes position

Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.96

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.98

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $1.43

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.33

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.11

Yes position

Will Marriott (MAR) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.11

Yes position

Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.62

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.56

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.38

Bilibili Gaming position

LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (March 1)

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

No position

Trump wins every swing state?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$9

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will GTA 6 cost $100+?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?

Yes 56% 17.86 shares
Will France win on 2026-07-04?

Yes 84% 23.81 shares
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?

Yes 85% 23.53 shares
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 39% 25.64 shares
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?

Yes 52% 96.15 shares
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes 25.2% 39.68 shares
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

No 80% 14.28 shares
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Yes 20.1% 49.75 shares
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Yes 74% 13.51 shares
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Yes 70.8% 14.12 shares
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 43% 23.26 shares
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?

Yes 31% 32.22 shares