Polymarket Trader

arnri

0xeeab45d5bd26794aadf0adb12af3d025c1ff3516

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $3.83K
Realized PnL: -$9.16K
Win rate: 45.5%
Open positions: 18
Closed positions: 22
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

No Ethereum all time high in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $36.02K
Potential profit: $36.02K
User PnL: -$17.13K

Yes position

Ethereum all time high in 2024?

Ends Dec 30, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.53K
Potential profit: $22.53K
User PnL: -$2.05K

Yes position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 9.9%
Current value: $1.87K
Potential payout: $19K
Potential profit: $17.13K
Multiplier: 10.15x
User PnL: -$28.5

Yes position

Will the Democratic candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.0%-2.5%?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.81K
Potential profit: $8.81K
User PnL: -$821.18

Yes position

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $746.55
Potential payout: $7.9K
Potential profit: $7.15K
Multiplier: 10.58x
User PnL: $430.55

Yes position

2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 0-4

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.85K
Potential profit: $6.85K
User PnL: -$627.39

Yes position

Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.7%
Current value: $134.22
Potential payout: $5.06K
Potential profit: $4.93K
Multiplier: 37.74x
User PnL: $34.22

Yes position

Kamala Rust Belt swing state sweep?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $3K
User PnL: -$1.09K

Yes position

Will a Democrat win Nevada Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$900

Yes position

Will a Democrat win North Carolina Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.89K
Potential profit: $1.89K
User PnL: -$719.6

No position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $1.08K
Potential payout: $1.82K
Potential profit: $735.48
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: $299.64

No position

2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.51K
Potential profit: $1.51K
User PnL: -$1.24K

Yes position

Will a Democrat win Texas US Senate Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.11K
Potential profit: $1.11K
User PnL: -$232.21

Yes position

Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$83

Yes position

Kash Patel out by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $852
Potential profit: $852
User PnL: -$76.68

No position

Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $581.44
Potential profit: $581.44
User PnL: -$255.83

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $565.26
Potential profit: $565.26
User PnL: -$271.1

Yes position

Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $42.03
Potential profit: $42.03
User PnL: -$24.8

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Ethereum ETF approved by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.91K

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?

Ends Aug 19, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.5K

No position

Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?

Ends Jul 20, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $941.18

No position

Will Ben Carson win the 2024 Republican VP nomination?

Ends Sep 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $859.07

$4000 position

Will $ETH hit $2000 or $4000 first?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $353.02

Yes position

No Ethereum all time high in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $260.91

No position

Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?

Ends Aug 19, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $193.83

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $125.08

No position

Will Biden resign during his speech today?

Ends Jul 24, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $110

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Ends Oct 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5

Yes position

Will the HBO documentary identify Craig Wright as Satoshi?

Ends Oct 15, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$261.47

Yes position

Will a Republican win the popular vote and a Democrat win the Presidency?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$520.75

Democrats position

Senate control after 2024 election?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.2K

Yes position

Will a Democrat win Georgia Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.32K

Yes position

2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.59K

Yes position

2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 65-104

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.19K

Yes position

Will Doug Burgum win the 2024 Republican VP nomination?

Ends Jul 18, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.15K

Yes position

Will a Democrat win Iowa Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.13K

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.18K

Yes position

Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?

Ends Aug 22, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5.1K

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$6.07K

Yes position

Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10.7K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes 8.5% 6,000 shares
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

No 43% 1,816 shares
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes 2% 5,064.97 shares
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?

Yes 47.5% 465.26 shares
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?

Yes 50.1% 100 shares
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes 10% 25,000 shares
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Yes 2.7% 64,440.76 shares
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Yes 8% 500 shares
Kash Patel out by August 31?

Yes 9% 852 shares
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Yes 7% 500 shares
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes 4% 7,900 shares
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Yes 12.1% 60,070.63 shares