Polymarket Trader

OddsOfMormon

0xeeccec42e1127603370da0be381af41971baef84

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $558.85
Realized PnL: $3.14K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $688.6
Potential profit: $688.6
User PnL: -$100

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $592.55
Potential profit: $592.55
User PnL: -$430.5

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $477.86
Potential payout: $511.08
Potential profit: $33.22
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $191.76

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $363.93
Potential profit: $363.93
User PnL: -$262

Yes position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $2.95
Potential payout: $310
Potential profit: $307.06
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$40.64

Yes position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $288.33
Potential profit: $288.33
User PnL: -$35

No position

Will Iran Play in the World Cup?

Ends Aug 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $218.18
Potential profit: $218.18
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $20.27
Potential payout: $213.34
Potential profit: $193.07
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$44.73

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $207.33
Potential profit: $207.33
User PnL: -$110

Yes position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $203.02
Potential profit: $203.02
User PnL: -$120

Yes position

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $16
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $184
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$16

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.55
Potential payout: $121.46
Potential profit: $120.91
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$21.35

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.4%
Current value: $3.4
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $96.6
Multiplier: 29.41x
User PnL: -$36.6

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $11.91
Potential payout: $88.24
Potential profit: $76.32
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$18.09

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $84.81
Potential profit: $84.81
User PnL: -$60

Yes position

Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $71.43
User PnL: -$1

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $66.67
Potential profit: $66.67
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.3%
Current value: $4.17
Potential payout: $66.67
Potential profit: $62.5
Multiplier: 16.00x
User PnL: -$5.83

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.2%
Current value: $7.39
Potential payout: $56.18
Potential profit: $48.79
Multiplier: 7.60x
User PnL: $2.39

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.8%
Current value: $3.38
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $46.63
Multiplier: 14.81x
User PnL: -$1.63

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 12.4%
Current value: $5.46
Potential payout: $44.25
Potential profit: $38.78
Multiplier: 8.10x
User PnL: $0.46

Yes position

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.7%
Current value: $0.98
Potential payout: $36.29
Potential profit: $35.31
Multiplier: 37.04x
User PnL: -$4.02

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $4.46
Potential payout: $35.71
Potential profit: $31.25
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$5.54

Yes position

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.09
Potential payout: $34.21
Potential profit: $34.12
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$11.2

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US military action against Iran before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $902.55

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $281.82

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $228.58

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $183.75

No position

Will Israel strike Gaza on October 31?

Ends Nov 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $173

Yes position

Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $145.13

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $112

No position

Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?

Ends Jul 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $110

No position

Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?

Ends Nov 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $106.87

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET

Ends Mar 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $86.2

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $86

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.9

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $75.76

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $67.09

Yes position

Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.75

Yes position

Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.07

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48

Yes position

Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $45.96

No position

Will Israel strike Gaza on October 21?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45

No position

Will Israel strike Gaza on November 6?

Ends Nov 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.21

Yes position

Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.65

No position

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.69

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.95

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 92% 1.09 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 28.5% 35.09 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 27.3% 36.63 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 48% 20.83 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 80.1% 500 shares
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?

No 14.5% 688.6 shares
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?

Yes 3% 166.67 shares
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?

Yes 59.1% 203.02 shares
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?

Yes 25% 80 shares
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?

Yes 24% 41.67 shares
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?

Yes 1.4% 71.43 shares
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

No 61% 163.93 shares