No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $463.18
- Potential payout
- $523.37
- Potential profit
- $60.19
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $37.66
Polymarket Trader
0xef0d...7e94
0xef0d5a1f3abaee8e780e5c64c77428e60c397e94
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $2.68K
- Realized PnL
- $871.28
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $390.01
- Potential payout
- $503.24
- Potential profit
- $113.23
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- -$11.53
No position
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 86%
- Current value
- $318.3
- Potential payout
- $370.11
- Potential profit
- $51.82
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $16.81
No position
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Ends Aug 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.5%
- Current value
- $123.9
- Potential payout
- $339.46
- Potential profit
- $215.56
- Multiplier
- 2.74x
- User PnL
- -$10.04
N
No position
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $204.65
- Potential payout
- $286.23
- Potential profit
- $81.58
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $22.87
No position
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $284.73
- Potential profit
- $284.73
- User PnL
- -$196.03
No position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $260.61
- Potential profit
- $260.61
- User PnL
- -$67.09
No position
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Current value
- $112.93
- Potential payout
- $248.2
- Potential profit
- $135.27
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- $14.51
No position
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.5%
- Current value
- $134.33
- Potential payout
- $199.01
- Potential profit
- $64.68
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- $3.9
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $148.54
- Potential payout
- $196.74
- Potential profit
- $48.2
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $12.4
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.5%
- Current value
- $104.61
- Potential payout
- $172.91
- Potential profit
- $68.3
- Multiplier
- 1.65x
- User PnL
- $18.92
No position
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $86.12
- Potential payout
- $152.45
- Potential profit
- $66.33
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- -$6.75
No position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $124.96
- Potential payout
- $141.19
- Potential profit
- $16.24
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $4.71
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $102.62
- Potential payout
- $130.72
- Potential profit
- $28.1
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $15.06
Yes position
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 68%
- Current value
- $88.56
- Potential payout
- $130.23
- Potential profit
- $41.67
- Multiplier
- 1.47x
- User PnL
- $6.54
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $128
- Potential profit
- $128
- User PnL
- -$10.24
No position
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $84.17
- Potential payout
- $94.05
- Potential profit
- $9.87
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $1.41
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $87.31
- Potential profit
- $87.31
- User PnL
- -$52.15
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $83.77
- Potential profit
- $83.77
- User PnL
- -$53.64
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $57.6
- Potential payout
- $67.37
- Potential profit
- $9.77
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $3.25
No position
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $48.11
- Potential payout
- $54.99
- Potential profit
- $6.87
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $3.18
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $36.48
- Potential payout
- $41.69
- Potential profit
- $5.21
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $6.92
No position
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $28.87
- Potential payout
- $30.39
- Potential profit
- $1.52
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $1.52
N
No position
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $17.24
- Potential payout
- $19.7
- Potential profit
- $2.46
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $0.89
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $104.53
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $84.02
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81.16
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $73.7
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.23
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.71
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.31
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.3
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.16
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.36
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.4
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.93
No position
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.39
Justin Gaethje position
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.37
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.35
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.92
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.1
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.3
No position
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.21
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.62
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.11
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.1
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?No 47% 5.13 shares
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?No 50% 54.96 shares
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?No 85.6% 323.02 shares
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No 40% 15.15 shares
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No 40% 22.88 shares
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No 41% 5.44 shares
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No 40% 5 shares
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?No 71% 9.08 shares
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?No 70% 5.66 shares
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No 40% 115.05 shares
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?No 93% 37.68 shares
- Trump meets with Putin by December 31?No 69% 35.9 shares