Yes position
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $9.03K
- Potential payout
- $15.98K
- Potential profit
- $6.95K
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- -$821.84
Polymarket Trader
carkiller530
0xef2f91f75d1878a09ecd42a376d084d3bc808b9c
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $40.71K
- Realized PnL
- $15.99K
- Win rate
- 94.4%
- Open positions
- 18
- Closed positions
- 18
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $8.67K
- Potential payout
- $15.34K
- Potential profit
- $6.68K
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- -$1.36K
No position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $10.34K
- Potential payout
- $11.42K
- Potential profit
- $1.09K
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $759.33
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Current value
- $4.14K
- Potential payout
- $9.29K
- Potential profit
- $5.16K
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- -$1.47K
No position
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 45%
- Current value
- $2.09K
- Potential payout
- $4.65K
- Potential profit
- $2.56K
- Multiplier
- 2.22x
- User PnL
- -$705.77
Yes position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 9.1%
- Current value
- $284.17
- Potential payout
- $3.14K
- Potential profit
- $2.86K
- Multiplier
- 11.05x
- User PnL
- -$16.82
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 15%
- Current value
- $429.7
- Potential payout
- $2.86K
- Potential profit
- $2.43K
- Multiplier
- 6.67x
- User PnL
- -$321.17
Yes position
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 38%
- Current value
- $1.08K
- Potential payout
- $2.84K
- Potential profit
- $1.76K
- Multiplier
- 2.63x
- User PnL
- -$319.21
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 60.5%
- Current value
- $1.46K
- Potential payout
- $2.41K
- Potential profit
- $951.15
- Multiplier
- 1.65x
- User PnL
- -$119.17
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 59%
- Current value
- $1.06K
- Potential payout
- $1.79K
- Potential profit
- $735.62
- Multiplier
- 1.69x
- User PnL
- -$252.43
No position
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $477.07
- Potential payout
- $815.5
- Potential profit
- $338.43
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- -$22.93
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 81%
- Current value
- $634.44
- Potential payout
- $783.26
- Potential profit
- $148.82
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- -$65.56
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $540.7
- Potential payout
- $716.16
- Potential profit
- $175.46
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- -$59.3
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $294.94
- Potential payout
- $337.08
- Potential profit
- $42.13
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- -$5.06
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $327.87
- Potential profit
- $327.87
- User PnL
- -$200
Yes position
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $279.5
- Potential profit
- $279.5
- User PnL
- -$39.13
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $130.8
- Potential payout
- $162.49
- Potential profit
- $31.69
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- -$4.2
No position
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 66%
- Current value
- $54.91
- Potential payout
- $83.2
- Potential profit
- $28.29
- Multiplier
- 1.52x
- User PnL
- $4.91
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will a Republican win Texas US Senate Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.18K
Yes position
Will a Republican win Florida US Senate Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.09K
No position
Kamala flips a 2020 Trump state?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.98K
No position
Will a Democrat win Texas US Senate Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.62K
Yes position
Will a Republican win Florida in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.44K
Yes position
Will a Republican win North Carolina Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $656.41
Yes position
Will a Republican win Iowa Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $614.86
No position
Trump fires campaign manager?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $467.18
Republicans position
Senate control after 2024 election?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $386.03
Yes position
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $328.85
Yes position
Will a Republican win Nebraska US Senate Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $304.15
Yes position
Will a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $260.2
Yes position
Will a Republican win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $247.15
No position
Will a Democrat win Florida US Senate Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $226.46
Yes position
Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $117.28
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.09
Yes position
Will Trump say "Mexico" during the State of the Union address?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.17
Yes position
Will Trump say "The State of the Union is strong" during the 2026 State of the Union address?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.98K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Yes 14% 279.5 shares
- Trump out as President before 2027?No 82% 3,558.32 shares
- Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Yes 46.8% 640.56 shares
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes 55.9% 893.81 shares
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes 50% 1,000 shares
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes 63.4% 1,261.12 shares
- Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes 22.9% 568.13 shares
- Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes 74.6% 134.11 shares
- Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes 82.8% 120.79 shares
- Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?Yes 80.4% 248.9 shares
- Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Yes 87% 607.87 shares
- Trump out as President before 2027?No 83% 318.43 shares