Yes position
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $230
- Potential profit
- $230
- User PnL
- -$14.44
Polymarket Trader
doug1234
0xef6290ac2c47d07c7f61b5045261e4166858bcc2
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $265.21
- Realized PnL
- $482.25
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $3.43
- Potential payout
- $214.29
- Potential profit
- $210.86
- Multiplier
- 62.50x
- User PnL
- $3.43
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.5
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $199.5
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$9.3
Yes position
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $154.49
- Potential profit
- $154.49
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Amazon reach $276 in April?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $113.99
- Potential profit
- $113.99
- User PnL
- -$52.52
Yes position
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Current value
- $53.84
- Potential payout
- $82.19
- Potential profit
- $28.36
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- $53.84
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.9%
- Current value
- $64.61
- Potential payout
- $69.59
- Potential profit
- $4.98
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $39.56
N
No position
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Current value
- $35.7
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $24.3
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- $35.7
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $60
- User PnL
- -$12.66
Yes position
Will Amazon reach $296 in April?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $60
- User PnL
- -$10.56
Yes position
Will Meta reach $730 in April?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $57.89
- Potential profit
- $57.89
- User PnL
- -$22.25
Yes position
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $52.7
- Potential profit
- $52.7
- User PnL
- -$39.58
No position
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $256 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$24.5
No position
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$18
No position
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $35.25
- Potential payout
- $49.3
- Potential profit
- $14.05
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $35.25
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $43.48
- Potential profit
- $43.48
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $42.21
- Potential profit
- $42.21
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $40
- User PnL
- -$12.8
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $39.44
- Potential profit
- $39.44
- User PnL
- -$25.64
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Current value
- $33.45
- Potential payout
- $36.36
- Potential profit
- $2.91
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $13.45
Yes position
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 43%
- Current value
- $12.94
- Potential payout
- $30.09
- Potential profit
- $17.15
- Multiplier
- 2.33x
- User PnL
- -$7.72
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$20.4
Yes position
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Current value
- $25.5
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $4.5
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $25.5
Something position
Nothing Ever Happens: May
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59
Yes position
US strikes Iraq by March 7?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.84
Yes position
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.68
No position
US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.91
No position
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?
Ends Apr 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.91
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.64
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.73
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.14
No position
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.25
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.65
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.3
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.24
No position
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.83
No position
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.49
No position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.47
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.44
Nothing position
Nothing Ever Happens: April
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.88
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.24
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.39
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.76
No position
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.42
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.38
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.97
No position
Will 6–7 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.7
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 69% 60 shares
- Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 61% 46.3 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No 99.7% 80 shares
- Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 25% 120 shares
- Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 21% 214.29 shares
- Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?No 71% 49.3 shares
- Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 28.4% 211.21 shares
- Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 64.8% 46.3 shares
- Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 73% 82.19 shares
- Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?Yes 47.4% 24.49 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?No 71.1% 42.21 shares
- Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?No 99.9% 190 shares