Yes position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 38.1%
- Current value
- $7.61K
- Potential payout
- $20K
- Potential profit
- $12.39K
- Multiplier
- 2.63x
- User PnL
- -$2.39K
Polymarket Trader
0xef9f...79ee
0xef9f447115075a4a8b7edd8eac47a64e094179ee
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $20.57K
- Realized PnL
- $22.83K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 62%
- Current value
- $12.39K
- Potential payout
- $20K
- Potential profit
- $7.61K
- Multiplier
- 1.61x
- User PnL
- $2.39K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $475
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $4.53K
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- $25
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.6%
- Current value
- $92.8
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $707.2
- Multiplier
- 8.62x
- User PnL
- -$2.4
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.49K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.76K
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $979.31
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $743.78
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $685.38
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $512.62
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $390.59
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $359.36
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $337.2
No position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $332.04
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $324.8
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $312.35
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $284.22
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $280.22
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $245.69
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $242.2
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $227.18
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $203.01
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $198.24
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $197.5
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $192.43
No position
Iran leadership change by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $188.26
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $179.05
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $158.78
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 11.9% 800 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14Yes 99.9% 299.99 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 82.5% 399.97 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 92% 1,000 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?No 91% 1,000 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?No 92% 1,000 shares
- Iran leadership change by May 31?No 98.7% 5.19 shares
- Iran leadership change by May 31?No 98.6% 83.56 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?Yes 89% 399.99 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Yes 90.6% 13.03 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes 56% 1,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Yes 52.5% 2,000 shares