Polymarket Trader

Umaroth

0xefde9ff487fae209ab6e3157a8acb4276f9c783d

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $8.89K
Realized PnL: $30.95K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $3.5
Potential payout: $7K
Potential profit: $7K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.49K

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.7%
Current value: $409.5
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $2.59K
Multiplier: 7.33x
User PnL: -$22.5

Yes position

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $429.27
Potential payout: $2.38K
Potential profit: $1.96K
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: -$47.69

Yes position

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $308.27
Potential payout: $2.28K
Potential profit: $1.98K
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$34.25

Yes position

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $240
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.76K
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 11.2%
Current value: $217.26
Potential payout: $1.95K
Potential profit: $1.73K
Multiplier: 8.97x
User PnL: -$79.18

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $199.53
Potential payout: $1.38K
Potential profit: $1.18K
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$34.4

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 58%
Current value: $696
Potential payout: $1.2K
Potential profit: $504
Multiplier: 1.72x
User PnL: $12

No position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 91.8%
Current value: $917.51
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $82.5
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: -$0.5

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.9%
Current value: $968.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $31.5
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $38.5

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 82.9%
Current value: $662.8
Potential payout: $800
Potential profit: $137.2
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $14.8

No position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 61%
Current value: $488
Potential payout: $799.99
Potential profit: $312
Multiplier: 1.64x
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 38.1%
Current value: $298.54
Potential payout: $784.6
Potential profit: $486.06
Multiplier: 2.63x
User PnL: $37.27

Yes position

Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $41.62
Potential payout: $777.97
Potential profit: $736.35
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: -$145.09

Yes position

Will Kenan Yıldız score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $317.28
Potential payout: $667.96
Potential profit: $350.68
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: $76.82

No position

Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 73%
Current value: $482.93
Potential payout: $661.54
Potential profit: $178.62
Multiplier: 1.37x
User PnL: $73.93

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $450.86
Potential payout: $621.88
Potential profit: $171.02
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $65.3

No position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $369
Potential payout: $600.01
Potential profit: $231
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: $3

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $519
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $81
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $3

No position

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 66.9%
Current value: $334.24
Potential payout: $499.99
Potential profit: $165.75
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: -$5.75

No position

Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 61%
Current value: $284.87
Potential payout: $467.39
Potential profit: $182.51
Multiplier: 1.64x
User PnL: $75.98

No position

Will Lionel Messi score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $345.53
Potential profit: $345.53
User PnL: -$148.03

Yes position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $47.77
Potential payout: $308.17
Potential profit: $260.4
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$1.55

No position

Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 65%
Current value: $199.08
Potential payout: $306.27
Potential profit: $107.2
Multiplier: 1.54x
User PnL: -$2.4

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.5K

Yes position

Lighter Airdrop on December 30?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.2K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.87K

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.84K

No position

Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.68K

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET

Ends Feb 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.49K

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

Ends Feb 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.34K

No position

Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.27K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.2K

Yes position

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $958.41

Yes position

Will Trump say "Biden" during trophy presentation?

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $956.03

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $918.56

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $907.84

Yes position

Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $881.57

No position

Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $866.24

No position

France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $846.21

Yes position

Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?

Ends Feb 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $842.01

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $834.26

Yes position

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $830

Yes position

Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $756.64

No position

Will Trump say "Jesus Christ" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $751.83

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $746.64

Yes position

U.S. strike on Somalia by March 7?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $739.87

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $724.55

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30?

No 0.3% 319.22 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Yes 38% 632.9 shares
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

No 0.1% 3,578 shares
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

No 20% 18.82 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Yes 59% 1,000 shares
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

No 41% 371.03 shares
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

No 44% 1,000 shares
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Yes 9.3% 6,000 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Yes 39% 2,399.02 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Yes 41% 2,399.01 shares
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Yes 10.8% 6,000 shares
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

No 89.2% 557.6 shares