No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $4.85K
- Potential payout
- $5.14K
- Potential profit
- $282.54
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $154.53
Polymarket Trader
0xEFfe2DD3CC4376546aa0dC8549D68558E2195EfA-1768472138803
0xeffe2dd3cc4376546aa0dc8549d68558e2195efa
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $10.8K
- Realized PnL
- $3.4K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 23.2%
- Current value
- $722.46
- Potential payout
- $3.12K
- Potential profit
- $2.4K
- Multiplier
- 4.32x
- User PnL
- -$837.93
No position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 76.9%
- Current value
- $2.4K
- Potential payout
- $3.12K
- Potential profit
- $722.46
- Multiplier
- 1.30x
- User PnL
- $837.93
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.8%
- Current value
- $1.24K
- Potential payout
- $1.32K
- Potential profit
- $82.61
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $89.22
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $996.05
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $4.5
- User PnL
- $196.06
No position
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.7%
- Current value
- $296.32
- Potential payout
- $316.41
- Potential profit
- $20.09
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $5.22
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Current value
- $128.75
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $121.25
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- $28.75
No position
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $162.47
- Potential payout
- $163.04
- Potential profit
- $0.57
- User PnL
- $12.47
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $635.95
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $444.04
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $400.19
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $281.02
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $240.4
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $194.58
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $166.28
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $159.55
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $132.08
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $113.27
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $88.81
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $84.39
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $77.36
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.21
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.66
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.85
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.05
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.08
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.83
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.67
No position
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.77
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.52
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.76
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.91
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 8% 1,032.61 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 40% 250 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?No 99.4% 887.4 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Yes 9% 666.61 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?No 94% 425.53 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Yes 6% 96.16 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes 1.5% 926.18 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?No 68% 220.59 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes 2.1% 926.17 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 60% 250 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes 79% 189.87 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?No 87% 26.69 shares