No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9K
- Potential profit
- $9K
- User PnL
- -$7.15K
Polymarket Trader
CiaoBilly
0xf0411ab604bce8a4efe71b77c2e0aa454bdedde5
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $9.88K
- Realized PnL
- $41.76K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 18
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $5.69K
- Potential payout
- $6.02K
- Potential profit
- $330.88
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $541.07
Yes position
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.05K
- Potential profit
- $5.05K
- User PnL
- -$399.23
No position
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.56K
- Potential profit
- $4.56K
- User PnL
- -$3.7K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $3.38K
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $620
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $660
No position
Khamenei public appearance by February 21, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.51K
- Potential profit
- $3.51K
- User PnL
- -$2.51K
Yes position
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.2K
- Potential profit
- $2.2K
- User PnL
- -$384.33
No position
Khamenei public appearance by February 13, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.17K
- Potential profit
- $2.17K
- User PnL
- -$1.69K
No position
Will Sophia Chikirou advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.53K
- Potential profit
- $1.53K
- User PnL
- -$66.8
Yes position
Will Franck Allisio win the Marseille mayor election?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.14K
- Potential profit
- $1.14K
- User PnL
- -$154.53
No position
Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78%
- Current value
- $816.73
- Potential payout
- $1.05K
- Potential profit
- $230.36
- Multiplier
- 1.28x
- User PnL
- $25.01
No position
Khamenei public appearance by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $843.41
- Potential profit
- $843.41
- User PnL
- -$588.79
No position
Will Russia capture Zaliznychne by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $646.99
- Potential profit
- $646.99
- User PnL
- -$463.67
No position
Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in February?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $147.16
- Potential profit
- $147.16
- User PnL
- -$117.22
No position
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $94.98
- Potential profit
- $94.98
- User PnL
- -$23.75
No position
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.61
- Potential profit
- $16.61
- User PnL
- -$11.71
No position
North Korea missile launch by March 15?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.19
- Potential profit
- $6.19
- User PnL
- -$4.03
No position
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Current value
- $2.7
- Potential payout
- $2.75
- Potential profit
- $0.06
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.06
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.64K
No position
Will Pierre-Yves Bournazel advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.42K
No position
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.96K
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- $2.93K
No position
Government shutdown on Saturday?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.28K
Yes position
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?
Ends Feb 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.95K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.63K
No position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.52K
No position
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.4K
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- $1.38K
No position
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.33K
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.29K
No position
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.27K
Yes position
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.17K
No position
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.12K
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.07K
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $951.09
No position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $935.6
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $880
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $856.01
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $771.92
Yes position
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $750.36
No position
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $661.46
No position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $605.14
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?Yes 0.2% 12,496.89 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?Yes 0.3% 22,179.95 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?Yes 0.2% 24,840.74 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No 1.7% 3,500 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 5% 34.57 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 2.4% 777.11 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?Yes 0.6% 123,423.45 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 71% 502.59 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?Yes 0.7% 80,756.43 shares
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?No 88% 16.9 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No 99.9% 13,100 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No 95% 2,100 shares