billygod

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $43.64
Potential payout: $86.41
Potential profit: $42.77
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: -$3.94

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 18?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $10.78
Potential payout: $69.55
Potential profit: $58.77
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$6.61

No position

Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 18?

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $23.24
Potential payout: $46.01
Potential profit: $22.78
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: -$4.39

No position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 17?

Implied probability: 39%
Current value: $15.08
Potential payout: $38.67
Potential profit: $23.59
Multiplier: 2.56x
User PnL: -$1.49

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 17?

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $6.26
Potential payout: $35.8
Potential profit: $29.54
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$1.31

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $34
Potential profit: $34
User PnL: -$1.02

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 18?

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $8.81
Potential payout: $32.05
Potential profit: $23.24
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: $1.12

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 18?

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $7.52
Potential payout: $32
Potential profit: $24.48
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$1.44

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on July 18?

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $7.51
Potential payout: $31.97
Potential profit: $24.46
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$3.67

No position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 18?

Implied probability: 56%
Current value: $17.3
Potential payout: $30.89
Potential profit: $13.59
Multiplier: 1.79x
User PnL: -$3.13

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 18?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $4.5
Potential payout: $29
Potential profit: $24.51
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$4.78

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 17?

Implied probability: 30%
Current value: $8.6
Potential payout: $28.67
Potential profit: $20.07
Multiplier: 3.33x
User PnL: $0.86

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on July 18?

Implied probability: 36%
Current value: $9.81
Potential payout: $27.25
Potential profit: $17.44
Multiplier: 2.78x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on July 14?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27
Potential profit: $27
User PnL: -$1.03

No position

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 18?

Implied probability: 39%
Current value: $8.97
Potential payout: $23
Potential profit: $14.03
Multiplier: 2.56x
User PnL: -$2.19

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 18?

Implied probability: 33.5%
Current value: $7.04
Potential payout: $21
Potential profit: $13.97
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: $0.32

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 18?

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $14.59
Potential payout: $21
Potential profit: $6.41
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $0.94

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 17?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $20.99
Potential payout: $21
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $8.6

No position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 18?

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $12.71
Potential payout: $21
Potential profit: $8.3
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: -$2.63

No position

Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 17?

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $9.82
Potential payout: $19.06
Potential profit: $9.24
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: -$1.22

No position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 18?

Implied probability: 77%
Current value: $13.94
Potential payout: $18.1
Potential profit: $4.16
Multiplier: 1.30x
User PnL: -$0.36

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on July 14?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.32
Potential profit: $16.32
User PnL: -$0.33

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 18?

Implied probability: 29.5%
Current value: $4.72
Potential payout: $16
Potential profit: $11.28
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: -$0.08

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 14?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $15
User PnL: -$0.42

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on July 18?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: $9.88

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.45

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.4

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.3

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.84

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.67

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.9

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.87

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or higher on July 17?

Implied probability: 47.5%
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: $5.79

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 18?

Implied probability: 41.5%
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: $3.51

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 18?

Implied probability: 34.5%
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: $3.4

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 17?

Implied probability: 48.5%
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: $3.32

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.3

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 17?

Implied probability: 29.5%
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: $2.73

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.64

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 17?

Implied probability: 49.5%
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: $1.6

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 17?

Implied probability: 6%
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: $1.27

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 18?

Implied probability: 43.5%
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: $1.27

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 17?

Implied probability: 28.5%
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: $1.03

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 18?

Implied probability: 28.5%
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: $0.96

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 18?

Implied probability: 21%
Multiplier: 4.76x
User PnL: $0.49

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 17?

Implied probability: 33%
Multiplier: 3.03x
User PnL: $0.46

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on July 16?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.35

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 17?