Polymarket Trader

Vondik

@focus_usd

0xf0587af44973936b50901aa60084cc1e2dafe173

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $341.6
Realized PnL: $7.96K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $23.53
Potential payout: $5.23K
Potential profit: $5.21K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$95.46

Yes position

Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $2.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $38.23
Potential payout: $2.25K
Potential profit: $2.21K
Multiplier: 58.82x
User PnL: -$76.76

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.8%
Current value: $79.07
Potential payout: $2.08K
Potential profit: $2K
Multiplier: 26.32x
User PnL: -$122.33

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $13.98
Potential payout: $1.33K
Potential profit: $1.32K
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: $1.98

Yes position

Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $2.4
Potential payout: $1.2K
Potential profit: $1.2K
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: -$3.6

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $7
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $993
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$118

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $3.78
Potential payout: $686.68
Potential profit: $682.9
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$20.22

Yes position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $12.95
Potential payout: $605.27
Potential profit: $592.32
Multiplier: 46.73x
User PnL: -$23.05

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $3.22
Potential payout: $585.79
Potential profit: $582.57
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$21.08

Yes position

Will DR Congo finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $11.66
Potential payout: $544.82
Potential profit: $533.16
Multiplier: 46.73x
User PnL: -$3.38

Yes position

NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1.54
Potential payout: $512.82
Potential profit: $511.28
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$18.46

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $10.08
Potential payout: $480
Potential profit: $469.92
Multiplier: 47.62x
User PnL: -$13.92

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $7.37
Potential payout: $359.69
Potential profit: $352.32
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$16.77

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.88
Potential payout: $352.94
Potential profit: $352.06
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$11.12

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.2%
Current value: $7.33
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $326
Multiplier: 45.45x
User PnL: -$4.67

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.9%
Current value: $9.42
Potential payout: $324.99
Potential profit: $315.57
Multiplier: 34.48x
User PnL: -$2.6

Yes position

Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $11
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $189
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$13

Yes position

Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $5.93
Potential payout: $172
Potential profit: $166.07
Multiplier: 28.99x
User PnL: -$18.15

No position

Will Uzbekistan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $8.95
Potential payout: $162.73
Potential profit: $153.78
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$3.55

Yes position

Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $9.27
Potential payout: $109.09
Potential profit: $99.82
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$14.73

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev position

UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $51.6
Potential payout: $64.1
Potential profit: $12.5
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $1.6

Yes position

Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $8.62
Potential payout: $61.54
Potential profit: $52.92
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$15.38

Yes position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $11.28
Potential payout: $48
Potential profit: $36.72
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$0.72

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.36K

Yes position

US strikes Iraq by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.15K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $726.75

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $591.41

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $514.17

No position

Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $401

Yes position

Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $317.68

Yes position

Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $311.45

No position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $266.51

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

Ends Mar 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $256.78

Yes position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $218.7

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $210.75

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $191.29

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

Ends Mar 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $175.29

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $151.97

No position

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $142.19

No position

Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $139.3

Yes position

Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 2, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $135.46

Yan position

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132.66

Yes position

Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?

Ends Jul 20, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $122.83

Guskov position

UFC Fight Night: Krylov vs. Guskov

Ends Jul 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $116.82

de Ridder position

Holland vs. de Ridder

Ends Jan 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $113.21

Yes position

Will Iran announce a new supreme leader by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $108.42

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $107.5

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

Yes 14% 42.86 shares
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 78% 64.1 shares
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Yes 2.3% 527.85 shares
Will Uzbekistan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?

No 6.1% 488.16 shares
Will Uzbekistan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?

No 8.2% 316.55 shares
Will Uzbekistan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?

No 7.2% 334.33 shares
Will DR Congo finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Yes 3.8% 630.37 shares
Will DR Congo finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Yes 1.3% 447.71 shares
Will DR Congo finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Yes 0.7% 11.54 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Yes 29% 83 shares
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?

Yes 25% 48 shares
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?

Yes 99.9% 200.2 shares