Polymarket Trader

polywog

0xf0d9af9effd0b4a039899901ba19a05ea1a3e4ee

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $104.11K
Realized PnL: $826.73K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 10
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $284.38K
Potential profit: $284.38K
User PnL: -$96.43K

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $8.84K
Potential payout: $103.98K
Potential profit: $95.14K
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$23.84K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $91.04K
Potential payout: $100.6K
Potential profit: $9.56K
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $39.81K

Yes position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $68.68K
Potential profit: $68.68K
User PnL: -$32.97K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $41.5K
Potential profit: $41.5K
User PnL: -$9.38K

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $26.69K
Potential profit: $26.69K
User PnL: -$9.36K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.81K
Potential profit: $16.81K
User PnL: -$1.5K

No position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $4.22K
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $774.99
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $2.52K

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.03K
Potential profit: $3.03K
User PnL: -$1.28K

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $415
Potential profit: $415
User PnL: -$26.56

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $260.93K

Yes position

Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.62K

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.36K

Yes position

Will Biden finish his term?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.48K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.74K

Yes position

Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.09K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.31K

Yes position

Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.77K

Yes position

Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.66K

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.04K

No position

North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.23K

Yes position

US government shutdown in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.2K

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $15.03K

No position

Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.52K

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.45K

No position

Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.47K

No position

Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.06K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.05K

No position

Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?

Ends Dec 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.76K

No position

Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year?

Ends Dec 12, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.47K

Yes position

Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.61K

No position

Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.84K

No position

Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?

Ends Aug 19, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.74K

Yes position

Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.3K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Yes 63% 1,342.81 shares
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

No 99.2% 23,808.55 shares
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

No 99.6% 0.68 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Yes 42% 1,077.96 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 99.8% 30,000 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 30% 3,116 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 30% 1,498.86 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 34.9% 15,604.98 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 58% 11,031.58 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 57% 12,706.99 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 16.9% 12,180.14 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

No 99.2% 55,000 shares