Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.68K
- Potential profit
- $8.68K
- User PnL
- -$42.83
Polymarket Trader
arsenelupin
@arsenelupinbtc
0xf1149da31539d059bd6b87fdddc34d92352e8003
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $400.69
- Realized PnL
- $1.97K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Y
Yes position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $108.67
- Potential payout
- $1.36K
- Potential profit
- $1.25K
- Multiplier
- 12.50x
- User PnL
- -$4.24
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $4.47
- Potential payout
- $992.99
- Potential profit
- $988.52
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$37.42
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $9.63
- Potential payout
- $875.2
- Potential profit
- $865.57
- Multiplier
- 90.91x
- User PnL
- $8.75
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.7%
- Current value
- $21.06
- Potential payout
- $794.84
- Potential profit
- $773.78
- Multiplier
- 37.74x
- User PnL
- $1.4
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $5.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $494.5
- Multiplier
- 90.91x
- User PnL
- $4
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.25
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $499.75
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.75
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $5.93
- Potential payout
- $494.1
- Potential profit
- $488.17
- Multiplier
- 83.33x
- User PnL
- -$54.66
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15%
- Current value
- $62.28
- Potential payout
- $415.19
- Potential profit
- $352.91
- Multiplier
- 6.67x
- User PnL
- $0.19
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.2
- Potential payout
- $400.01
- Potential profit
- $399.81
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$1
Y
Yes position
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 6%
- Current value
- $19.29
- Potential payout
- $324.18
- Potential profit
- $304.89
- Multiplier
- 16.81x
- User PnL
- $5.78
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $13.45
- Potential payout
- $309.99
- Potential profit
- $296.54
- Multiplier
- 23.04x
- User PnL
- $0.94
Y
Yes position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 16%
- Current value
- $42.19
- Potential payout
- $263.67
- Potential profit
- $221.48
- Multiplier
- 6.25x
- User PnL
- -$10.88
Yes position
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 36%
- Current value
- $66.19
- Potential payout
- $183.86
- Potential profit
- $117.67
- Multiplier
- 2.78x
- User PnL
- $1.42
Yes position
Will Kuwait sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $2.04
- Potential payout
- $170
- Potential profit
- $167.96
- Multiplier
- 83.33x
- User PnL
- -$8.16
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.6%
- Current value
- $2.89
- Potential payout
- $110.99
- Potential profit
- $108.1
- Multiplier
- 38.46x
- User PnL
- $1.44
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.05
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $99.95
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.75
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $24.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $75.5
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $1.75
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $98.25
- Multiplier
- 57.14x
- User PnL
- -$1.75
Yes position
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.8%
- Current value
- $5.09
- Potential payout
- $87.69
- Potential profit
- $82.6
- Multiplier
- 17.24x
- User PnL
- $0.88
Yes position
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 5%
- Current value
- $3.89
- Potential payout
- $77.86
- Potential profit
- $73.97
- Multiplier
- 20.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.78
Yes position
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $0.39
- Potential payout
- $65
- Potential profit
- $64.61
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.72
Yes position
Will Trump publicly insult Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.17
- Potential payout
- $55
- Potential profit
- $54.84
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- -$3.13
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $0.83
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $14.18
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$0.23
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 23?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $197
Yes position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $179.32
Yes position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $132.09
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $131.48
Yes position
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $105.94
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 January 26-1?
Ends Feb 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $95.64
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $93.7
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 26-1?
Ends Feb 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $86.41
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81.63
Yes position
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 13, 2026?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $80.01
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $73.41
Y
Yes position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- $72.83
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 January 26-1?
Ends Feb 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70.47
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.96
Yes position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $64.24
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?
Ends Apr 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $58.69
Yes position
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.04
Yes position
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $50.6
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $49.83
Yes position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $49.71
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.53
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 February 2-8?
Ends Feb 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.91
No position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $40.15
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.66
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Yes 25% 100 shares
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?Yes 7% 20 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?Yes 4.1% 109.99 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Yes 8.9% 15 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Yes 14% 6.24 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Yes 15% 408.95 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Yes 13% 106.52 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Yes 14% 9.57 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Yes 15% 111.95 shares
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 8% 125.66 shares
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 7% 59 shares
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 8% 200 shares