uniloktij

Implied probability: 5.3%
Current value: $9.13
Potential payout: $172.24
Potential profit: $163.11
Multiplier: 18.87x
User PnL: -$0.07

Yes position

Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $4.51
Potential payout: $101.35
Potential profit: $96.84
Multiplier: 22.47x
User PnL: -$0.57

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.66
Potential payout: $94.44
Potential profit: $93.77
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$7.34

Yes position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.57
Potential payout: $94.33
Potential profit: $93.76
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$4.43

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.3
Potential payout: $85.71
Potential profit: $85.41
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$2.7

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.33
Potential payout: $83.34
Potential profit: $83.01
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$1.33

Yes position

Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas by June 30 2026?

Implied probability: 4.9%
Current value: $3.98
Potential payout: $82.09
Potential profit: $78.11
Multiplier: 20.62x
User PnL: -$1.7

Yes position

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

Ends Jan 29, 2027

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $6.83
Potential payout: $80.81
Potential profit: $73.98
Multiplier: 11.83x
User PnL: -$1.17

Yes position

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $0.85
Potential payout: $80.63
Potential profit: $79.78
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$1.65

No position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $1.8
Potential payout: $78.13
Potential profit: $76.33
Multiplier: 43.48x
User PnL: -$3.2

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $3.16
Potential payout: $78.05
Potential profit: $74.89
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.55
Potential payout: $68.18
Potential profit: $67.63
Multiplier: 125.00x
User PnL: -$2.45

Yes position

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Implied probability: 4.9%
Current value: $3.02
Potential payout: $62.21
Potential profit: $59.19
Multiplier: 20.62x
User PnL: $0.26

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $3.89
Potential payout: $55.55
Potential profit: $51.66
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: -$1.11

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $6.25
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $43.75
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $1.25

Yes position

Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $1.03
Potential payout: $48.12
Potential profit: $47.09
Multiplier: 46.73x
User PnL: -$1.52

Yes position

Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $3.54
Potential payout: $41.66
Potential profit: $38.12
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$1.46

No position

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $5.89
Potential payout: $39.29
Potential profit: $33.39
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: $0.39

Yes position

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $2.5
Potential payout: $35.66
Potential profit: $33.16
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: -$3.25

Yes position

Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $1.25
Potential payout: $32.35
Potential profit: $31.11
Multiplier: 25.97x
User PnL: -$0.31

Yes position

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $3.5
Potential payout: $30.45
Potential profit: $26.95
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$0.26

Yes position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $4.05
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $25.95
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$0.45

No position

Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $19.26
Potential payout: $29.4
Potential profit: $10.14
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $14.26

Yes position

US recession by end of 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2027

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $3.29
Potential payout: $28.57
Potential profit: $25.29
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$0.71

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.5

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.91

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.46

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.5

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.98

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.32

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.81

Yes position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.16

Yes position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 28.5%
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: $1.72

Yes position

Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 6.2%
Multiplier: 16.26x
User PnL: $1.67

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.57

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.48

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 4.4%
Multiplier: 22.73x
User PnL: $1.48

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: $0.91

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?

Implied probability: 9.8%
Multiplier: 10.26x
User PnL: $0.87

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.86

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.75

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $0.61

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 5%
Multiplier: 20.00x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?

Implied probability: 4.3%
Multiplier: 23.53x
User PnL: $0.46

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June?

Implied probability: 3.6%
Multiplier: 28.17x
User PnL: $0.46

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 3.2%
Multiplier: 31.25x
User PnL: $0.41

Yes position

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: $0.33

Yes position

Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?