Polymarket Trader

richsmith

0xf2088ef95f5c1c0eee2640e8da537d6a1c175eef

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $2.82K
Realized PnL: $11.24K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.01K
Potential profit: $5.01K
User PnL: -$695.69

No position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $1.52K
Potential payout: $1.89K
Potential profit: $368.68
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: -$38.26

Yes position

Discord IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 61.7%
Current value: $715.09
Potential payout: $1.16K
Potential profit: $443.89
Multiplier: 1.62x
User PnL: -$252.35

Yes position

Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $425
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $575
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: $45

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$220

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$3.5

Yes position

Will EA say "Jared / Kushner" during earnings call?

Ends Oct 28, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $350
Potential profit: $350
User PnL: -$58

Colts position

Colts vs. Steelers

Ends Nov 9, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $322.58
Potential profit: $322.58
User PnL: -$200

No position

Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $298.81
Potential profit: $298.81
User PnL: -$41.83

Yes position

Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $277.37
Potential profit: $277.37
User PnL: -$87.12

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $260
Potential profit: $260
User PnL: -$1.04

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$43.13

Yes position

Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $235
Potential profit: $235
User PnL: -$29.67

Yes position

Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $235
Potential profit: $235
User PnL: -$16.69

Yes position

Anduril IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $28.23
Potential payout: $201.61
Potential profit: $173.38
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$32.22

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$10.3

Yes position

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $154.02
Potential profit: $154.02
User PnL: -$41.08

Yes position

Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $153.53
Potential profit: $153.53
User PnL: -$96.85

Commanders position

Broncos vs. Commanders

Ends Dec 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $150
User PnL: -$16.57

Yes position

Anthropic IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $108.81
Potential payout: $140.4
Potential profit: $31.59
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $3.05

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $113.92
Potential profit: $113.92
User PnL: -$5.92

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $110.87
Potential profit: $110.87
User PnL: -$98.5

No position

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$31.5

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 20.9%
Current value: $16.68
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $63.32
Multiplier: 4.80x
User PnL: $0.04

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.19K

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.9K

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $728.86

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $670.98

No position

Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $623.15

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $582.72

Yes position

Claude 4.8 released by May 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $512.65

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $420

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $393.08

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $292.83

Yes position

Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $197.95

Yes position

OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $195.55

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $189.38

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $168.8

No position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $156.99

Yes position

GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $150.11

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $148

Yes position

SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $140.36

No position

US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $136.37

Panthers position

LAR vs. Panthers

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $106.29

Packers position

Packers vs. Steelers

Ends Nov 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $105.06

Ravens position

Ravens vs. Dolphins

Ends Nov 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $97.93

Yes position

Will the government shutdown end November 13?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $71

No position

Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.6

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?

Yes 38% 500 shares
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?

Yes 38% 400 shares
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?

Yes 38% 100 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Yes 99.9% 2,515 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?

Yes 99.9% 675.81 shares
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

No 82% 396.67 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 79% 107.59 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

Yes 62.6% 900 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?

Yes 29% 1,999 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Yes 53.4% 216.32 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Yes 51.1% 109.94 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Yes 48% 18 shares