Polymarket Trader

MarcusAguilar4999

0xf23efbcedfd607fffda3536fd038e11b148aaec3

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.95K
Realized PnL: $1.47K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 17
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will "Ninja" be said at the Rotterdam Grand Final?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $1.46K
Potential payout: $1.46K
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $1.08K

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks position

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers

Ends Jan 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $720
Potential profit: $720
User PnL: -$182.16

No position

Will Trump say "Fat" this week? (January 18)

Ends Jan 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $567
Potential profit: $567
User PnL: -$311.85

Over position

New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 37%
Current value: $206.09
Potential payout: $557
Potential profit: $350.91
Multiplier: 2.70x
User PnL: $89.12

No position

Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $214
Potential payout: $214
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.43

Yes position

Over $22M committed to the Space public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $187
Potential profit: $187
User PnL: -$29.92

Yes position

Will Medline's market cap be between $55B and $65B at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 16, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $147
Potential profit: $147
User PnL: -$63.21

Yes position

Will CZ return to Binance by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $107
Potential profit: $107
User PnL: -$1.82

Yes position

New pandemic in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $90
Potential profit: $90
User PnL: -$1.26

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $67.25
Potential payout: $67.25
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $50.44

Yes position

Will Trump say "Egg" or "Gasoline" at the FIFA World Cup Draw on December 5?

Ends Dec 5, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16
Potential profit: $16
User PnL: -$2.72

No position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?

Ends Dec 11, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6
Potential profit: $6
User PnL: -$2.58

Yes position

Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$3.25

Yes position

Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $2
Potential payout: $2
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $1.36

Yes position

Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.07
Potential profit: $1.07
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $0.24
Potential payout: $1
Potential profit: $0.77
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$0.28

Yes position

Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $0.21
Potential payout: $1
Potential profit: $0.8
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: $0.01

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Left-Wing Wave in French Mayoral Elections?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $221.84

No position

Will Spike Jonze win Best Director of Commercials at the 78th DGA Awards?

Ends Feb 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $193.55

Olympiacos B.C. position

Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce

Ends Dec 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $174.3

Over position

Dundee FC vs. Motherwell FC: O/U 2.5

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $128.7

Down position

Solana Up or Down - February 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET

Ends Feb 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $114.8

No position

Will Green Left win 20-24 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?

Ends Mar 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $89.76

Yes position

Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.08

No position

Will Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Jan 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.08

Bulls position

Bulls vs. Heat

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.4

No position

Will Medline's market cap be between $55B and $65B at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.29

No position

Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $42.93

No position

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $39.87

Yes position

Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?

Ends Jan 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.72

No position

Will Damac Saudi Club vs. Al Ahli Saudi Club end in a draw?

Ends Dec 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24

No position

Will Tucker Carlson be named StopAntisemitism's 2025 Antisemite of the Year?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $20.8

Yes position

Will "Marty Supreme" win no awards at the Oscars?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.67

Yes position

Will GNX (Kendrick Lamar) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.79

No position

Will Chris Shula be the next Giants Head Coach?

Ends Apr 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.26

No position

Will Nancy Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.52

No position

Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $13.89

Yes position

Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $13.68

No position

Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.68

No position

Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90%?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.61

No position

Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.54

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Trump post "Peter" or "Magyar" on Truth Social this week?

No 51% 381 shares
Will Trump post "Peter" or "Magyar" on Truth Social this week?

No 89% 381 shares
Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?

No 32% 261 shares
Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?

No 32% 707 shares
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?

No 75% 39 shares
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?

No 75% 39 shares
Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?

No 33% 968 shares
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?

No 39% 286 shares
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?

No 39% 302 shares
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?

No 39% 305 shares
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?

No 50% 893 shares
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 30 be between 2,400,000 and 2,600,000?

No 51% 486 shares