Yes position
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.83K
- Potential profit
- $9.83K
- User PnL
- -$222.06
Polymarket Trader
ethmar
0xf261ef5a6d606f33df651b92a73956869c22a709
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $308.34
- Realized PnL
- $1.04K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $118.15
- Potential payout
- $1.13K
- Potential profit
- $1.01K
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$161.85
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $1.41
- Potential payout
- $939.43
- Potential profit
- $938.02
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$250.59
Yes position
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $526.32
- Potential profit
- $526.32
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.4
- Potential payout
- $400.25
- Potential profit
- $399.85
- Multiplier
- 1000.00x
- User PnL
- -$59.6
Yes position
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 28.5%
- Current value
- $77.5
- Potential payout
- $272.03
- Potential profit
- $194.53
- Multiplier
- 3.51x
- User PnL
- -$122.5
Yes position
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $227.27
- Potential profit
- $227.27
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 24%
- Current value
- $53.8
- Potential payout
- $224.16
- Potential profit
- $170.36
- Multiplier
- 4.17x
- User PnL
- -$85.21
No position
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $210.44
- Potential profit
- $210.44
- User PnL
- -$18.82
Yes position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $185.19
- Potential profit
- $185.19
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $166.67
- Potential profit
- $166.67
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will Bernard Cazeneuve be the next Prime Minister of France?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $143.49
- Potential profit
- $143.49
- User PnL
- -$30
No position
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?
Ends Dec 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $143.25
- Potential profit
- $143.25
- User PnL
- -$59
Yes position
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $12.16
- Potential payout
- $127.96
- Potential profit
- $115.81
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$37.84
No position
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $108.7
- Potential profit
- $108.7
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $104.17
- Potential profit
- $104.17
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Lecornu out as French PM by November 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $90.47
- Potential profit
- $90.47
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
OpenAI browser by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $79.37
- Potential profit
- $79.37
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Discord IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 59.4%
- Current value
- $44.92
- Potential payout
- $75.63
- Potential profit
- $30.7
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- -$5.08
Yes position
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3500000 and 3750000?
Ends Oct 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $64.94
- Potential profit
- $64.94
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be 4000000 or more?
Ends Oct 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $59.52
- Potential profit
- $59.52
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Maduro mugshot released by January 16?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $53.98
- Potential profit
- $53.98
- User PnL
- -$6
Yes position
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?
Ends Oct 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $46.3
- Potential profit
- $46.3
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $42.86
- Potential profit
- $42.86
- User PnL
- -$9
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $383.76
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $148.69
Yes position
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?
Ends Dec 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $77.13
No position
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.84
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.65
No position
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.87
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $42.48
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.83
No position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.55
No position
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 9?
Ends Dec 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.16
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $31.33
Yes position
Will xAI’s Grok 4 lose the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.37
Yes position
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.61
No position
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.85
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10
Yes position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.39
Yes position
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends Oct 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.11
Yes position
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?
Ends Oct 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.35
No position
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $2.76
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.35
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.81
Yes position
Will Trump say "NATO" during events with President of Finland on Oct 9?
Ends Oct 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.49
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.2
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- $0.21
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Yes 62% 224.15 shares
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 16.8% 350.49 shares
- Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes 13% 230.77 shares
- Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?Yes 1.9% 526.32 shares
- Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes 54% 185.19 shares
- Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes 12% 166.67 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No 92% 270.27 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No 74% 270.27 shares
- Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?Yes 6.7% 150.25 shares
- Critical Discord Incident by May 31?Yes 18.7% 105.26 shares
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 27% 55.56 shares
- Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?Yes 20% 250 shares