Polymarket Trader

esforcado

0xf272f16ae9dbdf913721334d207e1b315be0a7a8

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $2.45
Realized PnL: -$0.33
Win rate: 36.4%
Open positions: 6
Closed positions: 11
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.8%
Current value: $2.45
Potential payout: $42.55
Potential profit: $40.11
Multiplier: 17.39x
User PnL: -$1.55

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $19.23
Potential profit: $19.23
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.13
Potential profit: $13.13
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-05?

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $11.11
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.33
Potential profit: $8.33
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.7
Potential profit: $3.7
User PnL: -$3

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4

Yes position

Will Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC end in a draw?

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.04

Yes position

Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 19.5%
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 51.5%
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 69.5%
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: -$0.08

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 68.5%
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: -$0.35

No position

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.7

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.79

Yes position

Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7.6%
Multiplier: 13.25x
User PnL: -$1.33

Yes position

McDonald's CEO out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.6%
Multiplier: 62.50x
User PnL: -$1.57

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 9.4% 42.55 shares
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?

Yes 1.7% 71.42 shares
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 71% 2.7 shares
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2026?

Yes 17.1% 12.03 shares
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 21% 9.52 shares
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 45% 5.13 shares
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 57% 2.89 shares
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?

Yes 2.8% 71.43 shares
Will Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC end in a draw?

Yes 80% 2.5 shares
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-05?

Yes 18% 11.11 shares
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2026?

Yes 29.8% 5.03 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

Yes 12% 8.33 shares