Polymarket Trader

y4rrow

0xf29b060ab42c31afb6ed7b6aded05985b1e2961e

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $705.37
Realized PnL: $1.91K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 18
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.19
Potential payout: $372.91
Potential profit: $372.72
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$6.8

No position

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 78%
Current value: $121.25
Potential payout: $155.45
Potential profit: $34.2
Multiplier: 1.28x
User PnL: $14.95

No position

Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 97.3%
Current value: $144.72
Potential payout: $148.81
Potential profit: $4.09
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $3.35

No position

Will the Democrats win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 92.8%
Current value: $135.25
Potential payout: $145.82
Potential profit: $10.57
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: -$1.53

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $3.84
Potential payout: $118.13
Potential profit: $114.29
Multiplier: 30.77x
User PnL: -$7.05

No position

Will the Republicans win the Maine governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 95.3%
Current value: $95.16
Potential payout: $99.86
Potential profit: $4.69
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $3.4

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Hawaii governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $89.14
Potential payout: $95.34
Potential profit: $6.2
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: -$0.48

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 7.3%
Current value: $5.89
Potential payout: $81.21
Potential profit: $75.32
Multiplier: 13.79x
User PnL: -$2.12

No position

Will the Republicans win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 5.8%
Current value: $3.27
Potential payout: $56.94
Potential profit: $53.67
Multiplier: 17.39x
User PnL: -$1.73

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 94.3%
Current value: $40.72
Potential payout: $43.2
Potential profit: $2.48
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.54

Yes position

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 22%
Current value: $9.05
Potential payout: $41.15
Potential profit: $32.09
Multiplier: 4.55x
User PnL: -$4.94

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $36.19
Potential payout: $38.71
Potential profit: $2.52
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $0.19

No position

Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $2
Potential payout: $37.31
Potential profit: $35.31
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: $0.06

No position

Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $2.02
Potential payout: $31.11
Potential profit: $29.09
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$0.98

No position

Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $14.25
Potential payout: $15.92
Potential profit: $1.67
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: -$0.4

No position

Will the Democrats win the Oregon Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $0.86
Potential payout: $15.63
Potential profit: $14.77
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$0.39

No position

Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $0.58
Potential payout: $12.5
Potential profit: $11.93
Multiplier: 21.74x
User PnL: -$0.43

No position

Tim Walz in jail by December 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $0.99
Potential payout: $1.06
Potential profit: $0.07
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: -$0.02

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12PM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $395.34

Bruins position

Bruins vs. Sabres

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $220.69

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 12PM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $198.14

Lightning position

Canadiens vs. Lightning

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $191.51

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 9AM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $153.78

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 20?

Ends Apr 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $152.73

Up position

XRP Up or Down - April 21, 9AM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $95.14

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9AM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.6

No position

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 20?

Ends Apr 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.96

Down position

Solana Up or Down - April 21, 12PM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.23

Down position

XRP Up or Down - April 21, 12PM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.29

Up position

Solana Up or Down - April 21, 9AM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.56

Utah position

Utah vs. Golden Knights

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.38

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1PM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.88

No position

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 20?

Ends Apr 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.58

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 1PM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.48

Down position

XRP Up or Down - April 21, 1PM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.89

Down position

Solana Up or Down - April 21, 1PM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.93

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11AM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.69

No position

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on April 21?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.79

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 11AM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.12

No position

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 20?

Ends Apr 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.2

Up position

Solana Up or Down - April 21, 11AM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.11

No position

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 20?

Ends Apr 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.98

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?

Yes 87.5% 115.31 shares
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?

Yes 73.2% 221.63 shares
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026?

Yes 86.6% 225.05 shares
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?

Yes 62.8% 293.13 shares
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

No 67% 40.52 shares
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

Yes 34% 41.15 shares
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

No 68.9% 114.93 shares
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $300B and $350B at market close on IPO day?

No 99.5% 9.32 shares
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $350B and $400B at market close on IPO day?

Yes 0.5% 200 shares
Will the Democrats win the Hawaii governor race in 2026?

Yes 94% 77.16 shares
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?

Yes 93% 257.42 shares
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?

Yes 0.4% 1,692.5 shares