No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.1%
- Current value
- $323.29
- Potential payout
- $343.56
- Potential profit
- $20.27
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $49.37
Polymarket Trader
EconomistOx
0xf2a3aee3e288d216c69c9c3d956ac75e1bb88a8d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.31K
- Realized PnL
- $195.76
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 21
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $163
- Potential payout
- $180.11
- Potential profit
- $17.11
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $8
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Current value
- $77.24
- Potential payout
- $149.99
- Potential profit
- $72.75
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- -$17.75
No position
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $129.83
- Potential payout
- $135.38
- Potential profit
- $5.55
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $2.06
No position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $79.45
- Potential payout
- $95.15
- Potential profit
- $15.7
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $4.46
No position
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88%
- Current value
- $78.22
- Potential payout
- $88.89
- Potential profit
- $10.67
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $2.22
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Current value
- $56.18
- Potential payout
- $82.01
- Potential profit
- $25.83
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- -$4.82
No position
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $58.85
- Potential payout
- $69.65
- Potential profit
- $10.8
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $60.58
- Potential payout
- $63.47
- Potential profit
- $2.89
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.58
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $52.53
- Potential payout
- $58.69
- Potential profit
- $6.16
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $2.53
No position
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $52.51
- Potential payout
- $55.57
- Potential profit
- $3.06
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.51
Yes position
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
Ends Sep 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.6%
- Current value
- $45.42
- Potential payout
- $48.04
- Potential profit
- $2.62
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.42
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.2%
- Current value
- $39.75
- Potential payout
- $40.91
- Potential profit
- $1.17
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $12.75
Yes position
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
Ends Sep 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $24.74
- Potential payout
- $30.74
- Potential profit
- $5.99
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- -$2.26
Yes position
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25.86
- Potential profit
- $25.86
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 35%
- Current value
- $7.97
- Potential payout
- $22.77
- Potential profit
- $14.8
- Multiplier
- 2.86x
- User PnL
- $1.97
No position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $19.89
- Potential payout
- $21.98
- Potential profit
- $2.09
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- -$0.11
No position
Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.2%
- Current value
- $13.93
- Potential payout
- $20.43
- Potential profit
- $6.51
- Multiplier
- 1.47x
- User PnL
- -$6.07
Yes position
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $3.91
- Potential payout
- $20.06
- Potential profit
- $16.15
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- -$5.09
No position
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.3%
- Current value
- $9.91
- Potential payout
- $11.76
- Potential profit
- $1.85
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
No position
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.2%
- Current value
- $8.01
- Potential payout
- $10.52
- Potential profit
- $2.5
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- -$1.99
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.41
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.41
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.05
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.29
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $9.03
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.81
No position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.87
No position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.46
Yes position
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.95
No position
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.57
No position
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.97
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.6
No position
Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.25
Yes position
Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.99
No position
US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.86
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.78
No position
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $2.4
No position
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.08
No position
Starmer out by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.01
No position
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- $1.58
No position
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.42
No position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.38
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.34
No position
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 71% 23.94 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No 82% 24.39 shares
- Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?Yes 94.6% 10.57 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 94.7% 10.56 shares
- Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?Yes 80% 6.25 shares
- Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?No 85% 11.76 shares
- Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?No 95.1% 10.52 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 75% 13.33 shares
- Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?Yes 84% 8.33 shares
- Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Yes 97.1% 10.3 shares
- Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?No 99.7% 38.85 shares
- Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?Yes 94.7% 15.84 shares