No position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79%
- Current value
- $13.65K
- Potential payout
- $17.28K
- Potential profit
- $3.63K
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $8.29
Polymarket Trader
0xF2B05d854E0aF18E70B76e96534E2e7F7A04b26b-1750278413305
0xf2b05d854e0af18e70b76e96534e2e7f7a04b26b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $21.5K
- Realized PnL
- $23.62K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.65K
- Potential profit
- $15.65K
- User PnL
- -$14.45K
No position
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.8K
- Potential profit
- $3.8K
- User PnL
- -$2.56K
No position
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $2.56K
- Potential payout
- $3.31K
- Potential profit
- $743.78
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $2.64
Yes position
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.26K
- Potential profit
- $1.26K
- User PnL
- -$779.23
No position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.2%
- Current value
- $981.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $18.5
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $81.5
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $991.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $8.5
- User PnL
- $61.5
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $999.99
- User PnL
- -$984.99
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $999.99
- User PnL
- -$27.84
No position
Will Wildflower (Billie Eilish) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $828.29
- Potential profit
- $828.29
- User PnL
- -$801.56
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $694.74
- Potential payout
- $699.99
- Potential profit
- $5.25
- User PnL
- $67.65
Yes position
Will Lương Tam Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $600
- User PnL
- -$18.27
No position
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to at least 20 years in prison?
Ends Jan 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $508.32
- Potential profit
- $508.32
- User PnL
- -$500
No position
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $494
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $6
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $29
No position
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $367.41
- Potential payout
- $397.2
- Potential profit
- $29.79
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $1.82
No position
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $294.77
- Potential payout
- $325.71
- Potential profit
- $30.94
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $4.99
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $298.65
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $1.35
- User PnL
- $16.25
No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $247.71
- Potential payout
- $267.8
- Potential profit
- $20.08
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$1.34
No position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $239.88
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $10.13
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $3.13
No position
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $191
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $9
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $3
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $185.11
- Potential payout
- $185.95
- Potential profit
- $0.84
- User PnL
- $5.11
No position
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.2%
- Current value
- $102.35
- Potential payout
- $104.28
- Potential profit
- $1.93
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $2.35
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $101.01
- Potential payout
- $101.67
- Potential profit
- $0.66
- User PnL
- $3.01
No position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $99.45
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $0.55
- User PnL
- $3.55
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.21K
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.63K
No position
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?
Ends Jan 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.72K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.44K
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.37K
No position
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.26K
Yes position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.21K
Yes position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.11K
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $985.18
Yes position
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $949.15
Yes position
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $777.39
No position
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $687.89
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $680.05
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $677.81
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $576.65
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $571.76
Yes position
Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 4?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $537.95
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $505.01
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $496.49
No position
Iran leadership change by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $475.54
Yes position
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $464.57
Yes position
Will no government funding bill be passed by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $453.09
No position
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $426.89
No position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $401.85
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 7% 1,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 15.4% 4,500 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 95% 2,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 95% 100 shares
- Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?No 99.1% 13.26 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 95% 1,000 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?No 96.4% 100 shares
- Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30?No 98.1% 9.99 shares
- Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?No 90% 200 shares
- Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?No 90% 800 shares
- Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No 94% 7.94 shares
- Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No 94% 21.3 shares