Polymarket Trader

limearbs

0xf33104726a5d2c84b169c92f14880d58764b7e96

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $471.49
Realized PnL: $9.48
Win rate: 50%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 6
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $214
Potential profit: $214
User PnL: -$100.58

No position

Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $119.4
Potential payout: $143
Potential profit: $23.59
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$11.6

Yes position

Will Dylan Cease win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?

Ends Nov 12, 2026

Implied probability: 27.7%
Current value: $34.56
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $90.44
Multiplier: 3.62x
User PnL: $14.79

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $6.38
Potential payout: $106.29
Potential profit: $99.91
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: -$1.06

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $54.62
Potential payout: $106.06
Potential profit: $51.44
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: $0.71

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Diddy before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.9%
Current value: $11.49
Potential payout: $105.41
Potential profit: $93.92
Multiplier: 9.17x
User PnL: $1.16

Yes position

Will Sal Stewart win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?

Ends Dec 19, 2026

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $10.43
Potential payout: $104.3
Potential profit: $93.87
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: $1.03

Yes position

Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 11.4%
Current value: $11.88
Potential payout: $104.23
Potential profit: $92.35
Multiplier: 8.77x
User PnL: $0.56

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $1.92
Potential payout: $103.89
Potential profit: $101.96
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: $0.27

No position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $58.67
Potential payout: $102.03
Potential profit: $43.36
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: -$0.51

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the NM-02 House seat?

Ends Nov 4, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $17.74
Potential payout: $101.37
Potential profit: $83.63
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$1.47

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Julian Assange before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.9%
Current value: $6.74
Potential payout: $75.72
Potential profit: $68.98
Multiplier: 11.24x
User PnL: $4.2

Yes position

Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 4.9%
Current value: $2.58
Potential payout: $52.6
Potential profit: $50.03
Multiplier: 20.41x
User PnL: -$0.26

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 40.4%
Current value: $21.06
Potential payout: $52.14
Potential profit: $31.07
Multiplier: 2.48x
User PnL: $1.3

No position

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $45.57
Potential payout: $52.08
Potential profit: $6.51
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $0.78

No position

Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $6.23
Potential payout: $51.93
Potential profit: $45.7
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: -$0.14

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $2.33
Potential payout: $51.8
Potential profit: $49.47
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$0.26

Yes position

Will Barack Obama be arrested before 2027?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $1.81
Potential payout: $51.74
Potential profit: $49.93
Multiplier: 28.57x
User PnL: $0.62

Yes position

Will Taylor Swift be the top artist for 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $2.07
Potential payout: $51.69
Potential profit: $49.62
Multiplier: 25.00x
User PnL: $0.18

No position

Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

Ends Oct 26, 2026

Implied probability: 75.5%
Current value: $38.91
Potential payout: $51.54
Potential profit: $12.63
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $2.32

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 20.7%
Current value: $10.58
Potential payout: $51.21
Potential profit: $40.64
Multiplier: 4.84x
User PnL: $0.03

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $2.38
Potential payout: $31.71
Potential profit: $29.33
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$0.03

No position

Will the Democrats win the Maine governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 6.6%
Current value: $2.06
Potential payout: $31.5
Potential profit: $29.44
Multiplier: 15.27x
User PnL: -$0.46

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party win the GA-11 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $2.08
Potential payout: $20.82
Potential profit: $18.74
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$0.21

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 40.5%
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: $5.42

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 25.6%
Multiplier: 3.91x
User PnL: $3.64

Yes position

Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?

Ends Sep 1, 2026

Implied probability: 81%
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $1.72

Yes position

Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.3%
Multiplier: 8.13x
User PnL: -$0.2

No position

Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.7%
Multiplier: 9.39x
User PnL: -$0.26

Yes position

Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.9%
Multiplier: 10.15x
User PnL: -$0.84

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?

Yes 7.6% 31.71 shares
Will Trump pardon Diddy before 2027?

Yes 9.8% 105.41 shares
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Yes 11.6% 72 shares
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?

Yes 7% 106.29 shares
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Yes 10.3% 32 shares
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange before 2027?

Yes 3.4% 75.72 shares
Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?

Yes 78% 19 shares
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Series?

No 50% 17.98 shares
Will the Democrats win the Maine governor race in 2026?

No 8% 31.5 shares
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?

No 58.3% 41 shares
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?

No 58.9% 30 shares
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-11 House seat?

Yes 11% 20.82 shares