Polymarket Trader

0xf4104d6Bd85c5e369826d4965d21E9ECf18d3cA1-1775456068863

0xf4104d6bd85c5e369826d4965d21e9ecf18d3ca1

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $18.73
Realized PnL: $148.52
Win rate: 62.5%
Open positions: 10
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.57K
Potential profit: $3.57K
User PnL: -$28.9

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $2.52
Potential payout: $102.88
Potential profit: $100.36
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: -$2.48

Yes position

Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $92.28
Potential profit: $92.28
User PnL: -$3

No position

US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $52.32
Potential profit: $52.32
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $44.12
Potential profit: $44.12
User PnL: -$3

No position

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $31.42
Potential profit: $31.42
User PnL: -$13

No position

Will Trump visit China by May 15?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30.01
Potential profit: $30.01
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

US x China tariff agreement by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.15
Potential profit: $13.15
User PnL: -$3.02

Yes position

Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?

Ends Jul 5, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $10.3
Potential payout: $11.9
Potential profit: $1.61
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.3

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 52%
Current value: $5.91
Potential payout: $11.36
Potential profit: $5.45
Multiplier: 1.92x
User PnL: $0.91

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.82

No position

Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?

Ends May 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $36.12

Yes position

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.07

Yes position

Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.38

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.7

Rico position

Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.25

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.5

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.16

Yes position

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5

Yes position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.07

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 18?

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.53

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.18

Yes position

Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.1

No position

Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 1.5%
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: $1.76

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.7%
Multiplier: 21.51x
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.08

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.74

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.94

Yes position

Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?

Ends May 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.98

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.31

Yes position

Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$1.8

Yes position

Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?

Ends May 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5.28

Yes position

Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$6.74

No position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$15.32

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

No 4.9% 102.88 shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 30, 2026?

No 44% 11.36 shares
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?

Yes 84% 11.9 shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?

Yes 2.1% 24.83 shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?

Yes 25.2% 14.85 shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?

Yes 12.6% 39.68 shares
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

No 80% 14.7 shares
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

No 68% 14.71 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

No 26% 14.29 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?

Yes 9.2% 15.31 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

No 70% 14.28 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

No 35% 28.57 shares