Yes position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $4.83K
- Potential payout
- $46K
- Potential profit
- $41.17K
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$2.31K
Polymarket Trader
Certify0148
@ethereumintern_
0xf44dcf50490507a44a6244dc07f50686e71060af
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $6.51K
- Realized PnL
- $38.02K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Current value
- $1.23K
- Potential payout
- $1.25K
- Potential profit
- $19.34
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $105.44
No position
Anthropic acquired before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.3%
- Current value
- $400.05
- Potential payout
- $420
- Potential profit
- $19.95
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $41.65
No position
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.5%
- Current value
- $54.53
- Potential payout
- $90.13
- Potential profit
- $35.6
- Multiplier
- 1.65x
- User PnL
- $32.95
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?
Ends Nov 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.84K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.57K
No position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.57K
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.88K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.84K
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.8K
Yes position
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- $1.54K
No position
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.26K
No position
OpenAI browser by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.1K
No position
ICE shooter charged by March 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $810
No position
GPT-5 released in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $787.19
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $772.01
No position
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $769.05
Yes position
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $731.77
No position
Maduro mugshot released by January 9?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $716.73
No position
Will OpenAI release an open source model before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $672.83
No position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $654.02
No position
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $625.49
No position
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $624.82
No position
Maduro mugshot released by Monday?
Ends Jan 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $398.8
Yes position
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?
Ends Dec 11, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $327.59
Yes position
Cerebras IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $257.31
No position
GPT-5 announced in Q4 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $247.09
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $218.54
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Anthropic IPO before 2027?No 12.8% 5,299.68 shares
- Anthropic IPO before 2027?No 14.1% 278.22 shares
- Anthropic IPO before 2027?No 18% 5.22 shares
- US forces enter Iran by December 31?No 13.4% 25,613.76 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Yes 28% 1,147 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Yes 28% 6,138 shares
- US forces enter Iran by December 31?No 25% 3,059.91 shares
- US forces enter Iran by December 31?No 24% 9,928.28 shares
- US forces enter Iran by December 31?Yes 77% 274.59 shares
- Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes 1.1% 879 shares
- US forces enter Iran by December 31?Yes 66% 1,731 shares
- US forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes 55% 0.01 shares