No position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.27K
- Potential profit
- $1.27K
- User PnL
- -$439.47
Polymarket Trader
0xf4b3E8Bf8BFD25e101251cFf25fD15537040aF09-1763958682309
0xf4b3e8bf8bfd25e101251cff25fd15537040af09
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $257.66
- Realized PnL
- $1.78K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 10
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $121.61
- Potential payout
- $496.35
- Potential profit
- $374.74
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- -$152.78
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 2%
- Current value
- $9.54
- Potential payout
- $489.31
- Potential profit
- $479.77
- Multiplier
- 51.28x
- User PnL
- -$10.46
Yes position
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3%
- Current value
- $4.92
- Potential payout
- $166.67
- Potential profit
- $161.75
- Multiplier
- 33.90x
- User PnL
- -$5.08
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?
Ends Apr 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $159.62
- Potential profit
- $159.62
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 46%
- Current value
- $66.02
- Potential payout
- $143.51
- Potential profit
- $77.5
- Multiplier
- 2.17x
- User PnL
- -$33.98
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $5.94
- Potential payout
- $62.5
- Potential profit
- $56.56
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$4.06
Yes position
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.12
- Potential payout
- $47.62
- Potential profit
- $47.5
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$9.88
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $36.36
- Potential payout
- $36.36
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $16.36
Yes position
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $13.16
- Potential payout
- $13.16
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $3.16
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Nuggets position
Nuggets vs. Bucks
Ends Jan 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $519.94
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $329.33
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $159.56
Yes position
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $158.38
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $106.94
Yes position
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.84
Yes position
Trump declares election interference national emergency?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- $55.25
Yes position
Will Wildflower (Billie Eilish) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54.96
No position
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $49.74
Yes position
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.22
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.76
Yes position
Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.28
No position
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
Ends Feb 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.39
Yes position
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $20.92
Yes position
Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.35
No position
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.32
No position
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.24
No position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.58
No position
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.48
No position
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $13.93
No position
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.03
No position
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.28
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.11
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.54
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?Yes 0.3% 131.87 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Yes 0.1% 47.61 shares
- Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?Yes 1.5% 634.87 shares
- Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE?Yes 1% 325.03 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No 55% 36.36 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?Yes 12.5% 159.62 shares
- Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?Yes 2.3% 885.25 shares
- Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes 21% 47.62 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Yes 21% 47.62 shares
- Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?Yes 76% 13.16 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Yes 6% 83.33 shares
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Yes 34% 52.63 shares