Polymarket Trader

Treadmilled

0xf4baccff188321440a1ed01a5d5fd89c3e1f5933

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $183.29K
Realized PnL: $615.26K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 12
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $197.25K
Potential profit: $197.25K
User PnL: -$28.19K

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $187.19K
Potential profit: $187.19K
User PnL: -$4.99K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $130.09K
Potential payout: $130.29K
Potential profit: $195.43
User PnL: $72.01K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $80.3K
Potential profit: $80.3K
User PnL: -$1.92K

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $7.54K
Potential payout: $40.75K
Potential profit: $33.21K
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: -$5.14K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $36K
Potential profit: $36K
User PnL: -$14.36K

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $17.44K
Potential payout: $30.87K
Potential profit: $13.43K
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: -$3.16K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30K
Potential profit: $30K
User PnL: -$6.32K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $27.07K
Potential payout: $27.22K
Potential profit: $149.7
User PnL: $9.65K

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.25K
Potential profit: $11.25K
User PnL: -$2.63K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.58K
Potential profit: $9.58K
User PnL: -$5.41K

No position

GTA 6 launch postponed again?

Ends Nov 19, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $1.14K
Potential payout: $1.4K
Potential profit: $259.73
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $231.38

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Biden finish his term?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $201.71K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $86.19K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.87K

No position

Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.8K

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.58K

Yes position

Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?

Ends Apr 20, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $17.87K

No position

Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?

Ends Aug 19, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.19K

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before September?

Ends Aug 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.11K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.92K

No position

Will Elon Musk give a speech at Bitcoin conference?

Ends Jul 27, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.2K

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?

Ends Aug 19, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.77K

No position

Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.67K

No position

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

Ends Feb 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.56K

No position

Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?

Ends May 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.36K

No position

Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.33K

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.99K

No position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.71K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.22K

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.26K

Trump position

Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.7K

No position

Will Taylor Swift attend the DNC?

Ends Aug 22, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.62K

No position

Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.45K

Yes position

Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.36K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?

Ends Oct 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.79K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Yes 66.7% 30,872.78 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 30.9% 30,664.9 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 77% 1,109.11 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 17.4% 29,994.94 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 15.5% 7,129.47 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 15.3% 7,748.07 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 14.6% 7.09 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

No 99.3% 10,071 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Yes 16% 60,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Yes 15% 97,248.62 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

No 98.2% 10 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Yes 2.6% 50,000 shares