Polymarket Trader

wvdp

0xf4c3daff18ef5ff207ca69cf6116a5b7723c5e76

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $137.87
Realized PnL: $294.76
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 17
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.33
Potential profit: $33.33
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Liverpool wins the Premier League?

Ends May 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $26.77
Potential payout: $26.77
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $6.77

Yes position

Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25.48
Potential profit: $25.48
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $25
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $10

Yes position

DeepSeek R2 released before May?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.23
Potential profit: $23.23
User PnL: -$7

No position

Pepe ETF in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $21.39
Potential payout: $21.39
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $1.39

Yes position

DeepSeek banned in US before April?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.18
Potential profit: $18.18
User PnL: -$4

No position

GTA VI released in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $17.86
Potential payout: $17.86
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $12.86

Yes position

RedNote removed from App Store before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.65
Potential profit: $17.65
User PnL: -$3

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $16.13
Potential payout: $16.13
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $6.13

Yes position

OpenAI becomes a for-profit before April 2025?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15.87
Potential profit: $15.87
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15.38
Potential profit: $15.38
User PnL: -$10

No position

TikTok sale announced before April?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $15.22
Potential payout: $15.22
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $8.22

Yes position

Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.9
Potential profit: $12.9
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.68
Potential profit: $12.68
User PnL: -$9

No position

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $9.09
Potential payout: $9.09
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $4.09

No position

MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $6.41
Potential payout: $6.41
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $1.41

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US bank failure in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.56

Yes position

Tesla Robotaxi unveiling delayed?

Ends Aug 8, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40

Yes position

S&P500 all time high after election is called?

Ends Nov 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.71

Yes position

Dutch government formed before June?

Ends May 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.45

Yes position

$GME all time high by Friday?

Ends May 17, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $14.5

Yes position

Will Luke Littler win the 2024-25 PDC World Championship?

Ends Jan 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.3

No position

Will Tyson Fury beat Oleksandr Usyk in Ring of Fire?

Ends May 18, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.83

No position

Will Trump say "middle class" during his inauguration speech?

Ends Feb 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.83

Yes position

Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech?

Ends Feb 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10

No position

ChatGPT integration with iPhone before October?

Ends Sep 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.71

Verstappen position

Formula 1: Who will finish ahead at the 2022 Hungarian Grand Prix, Max Verstappen or Charles Leclerc?

Ends Jul 31, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.56

No position

Will Trump claim victory by midnight?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.23

No position

Will NATO expand in 2022?

Ends Jan 1, 2023

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.9

Max Verstappen position

Formula 1: Who will finish ahead at the 2022 Monaco Grand Prix, Max Verstappen or Charles Leclerc?

Ends May 29, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.43

No position

Will Kamala say "Vote" 3 or more times in her speech after the election is called?

Ends Nov 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.95

Max Verstappen position

Formula 1: Who will finish ahead at the 2022 Miami Grand Prix, Max Verstappen or Charles Leclerc?

Ends May 8, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.91

No position

Will 'Avatar: The Way of Water' gross more than $650 million domestically by January 31, 2023?

Ends Jan 31, 2023

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.75

No position

Yoon arrested by Friday?

Ends Jan 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.64

No position

Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech?

Ends Feb 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.2

Yes position

Will 2024 have the hottest February on record?

Ends Mar 1, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.15

Yes position

Dave Calhoun out as Boeing CEO before May?

Ends Apr 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5

No position

Will Nikki Haley drop out before Super Tuesday?

Ends Mar 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.43

No position

Will 'Tears of the Kingdom' win Game of the Year?

Ends Dec 7, 2023

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.41

No position

Will $Trump FDV be $50b or more on Feb 1?

Ends Feb 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.29

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?

Yes 19.6% 25.48 shares
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?

Yes 65% 15.38 shares
Will GPT-4.5 be released by March 31?

No 18% 16.67 shares
Will GPT-4.5 be released by February 28?

No 85% 5.88 shares
Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?

Yes 71% 12.68 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?

No 62% 16.13 shares
DeepSeek R2 released before May?

Yes 30.1% 23.23 shares
Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 1 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?

Yes 25% 40 shares
Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 3 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?

No 79% 12.66 shares
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year?

Yes 9% 33.33 shares
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?

Yes 31% 12.9 shares
TikTok sale announced before April?

No 46% 15.22 shares