64MGX75VLQ

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $15.26K
Potential payout: $16.5K
Potential profit: $1.24K
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $237.3

No position

Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $3.53K
Potential payout: $8.5K
Potential profit: $4.97K
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: -$722.5

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $4.97K
Potential payout: $8.5K
Potential profit: $3.53K
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: $722.5

No position

Human moon landing in 2026?

Implied probability: 97.2%
Current value: $971.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $28.5
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $35.35

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $599.7
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $0.3
User PnL: $8.3

No position

Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $452.5
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $47.5
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $20.5

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $452.5
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $47.5
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $47.5

Yes position

Will the U.S. national debt hit $40 trillion before 2027?

Implied probability: 95.3%
Current value: $410.32
Potential payout: $430.78
Potential profit: $20.46
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $15.54

No position

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $348.43
Potential payout: $402.81
Potential profit: $54.38
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $2.01

No position

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Implied probability: 90.6%
Current value: $362.2
Potential payout: $400.01
Potential profit: $37.8
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $16.34

No position

Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $399.4
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $0.6
User PnL: $9.58

No position

Will the U.S. national debt hit $42 trillion before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $271.5
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $28.5
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $4.5

No position

Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96%
Current value: $288
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $12
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $13.77

No position

Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Implied probability: 89.1%
Current value: $229.56
Potential payout: $257.78
Potential profit: $28.23
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $3.08

No position

Will "Supergirl" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $255.74
Potential payout: $256
Potential profit: $0.26
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $238.47
Potential payout: $240.03
Potential profit: $1.56
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $199.7
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $0.3
User PnL: $26.63

No position

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Implied probability: 98.1%
Current value: $196.1
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $3.9
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $3.7

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $199.7
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $0.3
User PnL: $3.5

No position

Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $198.3
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $1.7
User PnL: $3.3

No position

Will "Supergirl" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $159.92
Potential payout: $160
Potential profit: $0.08
User PnL: $0.24

No position

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 2m barrels per day in 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2027

Implied probability: 96.7%
Current value: $125.04
Potential payout: $129.37
Potential profit: $4.33
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $1.71

No position

Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $99.05
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $0.95
User PnL: $0.35

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.4%
Current value: $94.35
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $5.65
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.35

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.15K

No position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Ends Oct 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $622.02

No position

Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $387.83

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $237.88

No position

Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $168.13

No position

Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $158.4

No position

Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $144.07

No position

Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $110.96

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end before October 15?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $110

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $103.69

No position

Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $102.58

No position

Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100

No position

Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.98

Yes position

Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.6

Yes position

Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94.18

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $91.04

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $90.63

No position

Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $82.99

No position

EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77.16

Yes position

Will Mikie Sherrill win by 12-15%?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.51

No position

Will Lot 14 Gustav Klimt’s “Waldabhang bei Unterach am Attersee (Forest Slope in Unterach on the Attersee)” sell for 75m or more?

Ends Nov 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.11

No position

EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 19?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.04

Yes position

Will the U.S. national debt hit $39 trillion before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $71.87

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?