No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $1.39K
- Potential payout
- $1.4K
- Potential profit
- $9.1
- User PnL
- $237.7
Polymarket Trader
0xf4d9a57c8520E47cB0FDfC623123eF6Da8b122E4-1772225038791
0xf4d9a57c8520e47cb0fdfc623123ef6da8b122e4
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.54K
- Realized PnL
- $2.94K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Current value
- $772.39
- Potential payout
- $799.99
- Potential profit
- $27.6
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $62.4
No position
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $442.74
- Potential payout
- $549.99
- Potential profit
- $107.25
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $17.35
No position
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $437.48
- Potential payout
- $499.97
- Potential profit
- $62.5
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $58.5
Yes position
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.7%
- Current value
- $8.73
- Potential payout
- $329.38
- Potential profit
- $320.65
- Multiplier
- 37.74x
- User PnL
- -$165.13
Yes position
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$12
Yes position
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$7.8
No position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 66.5%
- Current value
- $133
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $67
- Multiplier
- 1.50x
- User PnL
- $13
Yes position
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $25
- Potential payout
- $199.99
- Potential profit
- $174.99
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$49
Yes position
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $181.18
- Potential profit
- $181.18
- User PnL
- -$23.55
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $170
- Potential profit
- $170
- User PnL
- -$136.19
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $98.85
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $1.15
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $12.85
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $12.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $87.5
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$6.5
Yes position
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$7
Yes position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$9
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $20.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $79.5
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- -$17.5
Yes position
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$29.5
Yes position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.9%
- Current value
- $50.9
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $49.1
- Multiplier
- 1.96x
- User PnL
- $0.9
No position
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $58.45
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $41.55
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- -$27.55
Yes position
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $77.84
- Potential profit
- $77.84
- User PnL
- -$5.37
Yes position
Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $75.98
- Potential profit
- $75.98
- User PnL
- -$11.02
Yes position
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $60
- User PnL
- -$5.4
No position
Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $59.64
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $0.36
- User PnL
- $9.24
Yes position
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 53%
- Current value
- $29.13
- Potential payout
- $55.01
- Potential profit
- $25.88
- Multiplier
- 1.89x
- User PnL
- $14.96
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $654.37
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $278.27
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $214.29
Yes position
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $207.71
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $198.54
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $175.13
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $170.27
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $150
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $134
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $107.99
Yes position
Will Iran strike Jordan in March?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $87
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78.71
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $65.1
Yes position
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52
Yes position
Will Iran strike nine or more countries in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.12
No position
U.S. evacuates Jerusalem embassy by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.73
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.92
No position
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.4
No position
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.5
Yes position
Will Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.71
No position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27
No position
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.26
No position
Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.98
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Yes 19% 100 shares
- Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Yes 58% 60 shares
- Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Yes 57% 8 shares
- Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Yes 52% 12.5 shares
- Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Yes 51% 47.99 shares
- Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Yes 50% 8 shares
- Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?No 49.4% 60 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No 94.8% 11.07 shares
- Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?No 88% 100 shares
- Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?Yes 19% 189.97 shares
- Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by April 30?Yes 15% 18.82 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?Yes 8% 105 shares