0xf525...559d

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $16.91
Potential payout: $719.37
Potential profit: $702.46
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: -$33.09

Yes position

Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.11
Potential payout: $226.25
Potential profit: $226.14
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.7

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $11.76
Potential payout: $75.9
Potential profit: $64.14
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$3.42

Yes position

Will Blake Miguez be the Republican nominee for LA-05?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 29.5%
Current value: $20.95
Potential payout: $71
Potential profit: $50.06
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: -$27.88

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $45.45
Potential payout: $57.9
Potential profit: $12.45
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $7.82

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $54.31
Potential payout: $57.47
Potential profit: $3.16
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $4.31

Yes position

Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $49.8
Potential profit: $49.73
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$4.91

No position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $32.81
Potential payout: $44.04
Potential profit: $11.23
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: $6.83

No position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $28.41
Potential payout: $33.82
Potential profit: $5.41
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $0.52

Yes position

Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Aug 4, 2026

Implied probability: 86%
Current value: $25.01
Potential payout: $29.08
Potential profit: $4.07
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $11.92

Yes position

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

Implied probability: 17%
Current value: $4.02
Potential payout: $23.64
Potential profit: $19.62
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $19.13
Potential payout: $22.91
Potential profit: $3.78
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $0.57

No position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $12.22
Potential payout: $20.54
Potential profit: $8.32
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: -$0.92

Yes position

Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $1.75
Potential payout: $18.56
Potential profit: $16.81
Multiplier: 10.58x
User PnL: -$0.84

No position

Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $12.37
Potential payout: $13.82
Potential profit: $1.45
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $1.04

Yes position

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 98.4%
Current value: $11.55
Potential payout: $11.74
Potential profit: $0.19
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $5.91

No position

Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $3.57
Potential payout: $9.04
Potential profit: $5.47
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: -$0.14

No position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $3.81
Potential payout: $6.2
Potential profit: $2.39
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: -$1.4

No position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $0.97
Potential payout: $5.85
Potential profit: $4.88
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$0.2

No position

Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?

Implied probability: 46%
Current value: $2.31
Potential payout: $5.02
Potential profit: $2.71
Multiplier: 2.17x
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $0.77
Potential payout: $4.81
Potential profit: $4.04
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: -$0.29

Yes position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.9%
Current value: $0.23
Potential payout: $4.01
Potential profit: $3.78
Multiplier: 17.09x
User PnL: $0.13

No position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 84.1%
Current value: $1.13
Potential payout: $1.35
Potential profit: $0.22
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: -$0.09

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $263.31

No position

Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $94.32

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.38

Yes position

Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.5

Team Liquid position

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.56

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.96

Kings position

Bulls vs. Kings

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.32

No position

Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.75

Heat position

Heat vs. Cavaliers

Ends Mar 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.71

Over position

Grizzlies vs. Nets: O/U 223.5

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.9

Yes position

Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.93

Over position

Grizzlies vs. Nets: O/U 222.5

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.52

JD Gaming position

LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.36

MOUZ position

Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.25

Spurs position

Celtics vs. Spurs

Ends Mar 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.48

Under position

Knicks vs. Hornets: O/U 224.5

Ends Mar 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.22

Timberwolves position

Suns vs. Timberwolves

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.33

76ers position

Grizzlies vs. 76ers

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.79

Over position

Grizzlies vs. Nets: O/U 221.5

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.28

Thunder position

Nuggets vs. Thunder