No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $152.21
- Potential payout
- $1.13K
- Potential profit
- $975.28
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$98.7
Polymarket Trader
TheChosenLP
@lewisdosis
0xf56a644d2536f73ed4ee14b1421fba836f06e0e7
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.55K
- Realized PnL
- $1.13K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 16
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $770.95
- Potential profit
- $770.95
- User PnL
- -$253.8
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $509.9
- Potential payout
- $539.58
- Potential profit
- $29.68
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $307.48
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $494.04
- Potential profit
- $494.04
- User PnL
- -$197.24
No position
Kash Patel out by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50%
- Current value
- $239.22
- Potential payout
- $478.44
- Potential profit
- $239.22
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- $79.52
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $411.73
- Potential profit
- $411.73
- User PnL
- -$199.44
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.5%
- Current value
- $239.7
- Potential payout
- $396.2
- Potential profit
- $156.5
- Multiplier
- 1.65x
- User PnL
- $39.52
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $389
- Potential profit
- $389
- User PnL
- -$250.4
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $377.42
- Potential profit
- $377.42
- User PnL
- -$183.92
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $371.29
- Potential profit
- $371.29
- User PnL
- -$200.61
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $365.27
- Potential profit
- $365.27
- User PnL
- -$135.15
No position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $125.87
- Potential payout
- $239.75
- Potential profit
- $113.88
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- -$25.5
Yes position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.2%
- Current value
- $148.82
- Potential payout
- $200.57
- Potential profit
- $51.75
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- $45.61
No position
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 67.5%
- Current value
- $132.17
- Potential payout
- $195.8
- Potential profit
- $63.64
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- $12.17
No position
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.2%
- Current value
- $6.75
- Potential payout
- $162.77
- Potential profit
- $156.01
- Multiplier
- 24.10x
- User PnL
- -$94.16
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $125.64
- Potential profit
- $125.64
- User PnL
- -$68.4
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $292.57
No position
Kash Patel out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $217.09
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- User PnL
- $134.48
Yes position
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $123.23
No position
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $111.99
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $96.89
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $73.79
No position
Chirayu Rana fired?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50%
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- $26.13
No position
US strikes Iraq by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $23
No position
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74%
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- $4.11
No position
Jack Smith charged by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.46
No position
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in March?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.93
Yes position
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.86
No position
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.65
Yes position
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.9%
- Multiplier
- 9.22x
- User PnL
- $2.07
No position
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.62
No position
Will Jurgen Klopp be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.39
No position
Hezbollah strike on Israel by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.32
No position
US strike on Cuba by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.31
No position
Will Trump sue Trevor Noah by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.3
No position
North Korea missile launch by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.28
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.02
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.35
No position
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.13
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 32.5% 2,975.42 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 31% 6.29 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 31% 976.1 shares
- Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?No 85% 367.98 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 30% 86.93 shares
- Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026?No 68.3% 40 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 30% 8.17 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 29% 1,241.12 shares
- Kash Patel out by June 30?No 94% 397.43 shares
- Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?No 38.9% 386.19 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?No 27% 559.31 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 46% 514.52 shares