Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.03K
- Potential profit
- $13.03K
- User PnL
- -$1.18K
Polymarket Trader
0xF580D43c2314a8f93A7bd81368b13C3c283f7faD-1768083498354
0xf580d43c2314a8f93a7bd81368b13c3c283f7fad
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $14.5
- Realized PnL
- $2.89K
- Win rate
- 91.7%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.5K
- Potential profit
- $10.5K
- User PnL
- -$398.99
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $4K
- User PnL
- -$470
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.47K
- Potential profit
- $3.47K
- User PnL
- -$790.09
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.78K
- Potential profit
- $2.78K
- User PnL
- -$250.02
Yes position
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $12
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1.99K
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- -$98
Yes position
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.36K
- Potential profit
- $1.36K
- User PnL
- -$384.12
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.32K
- Potential profit
- $1.32K
- User PnL
- -$312.04
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $2.5
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $997.49
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$577.5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $608.6
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $285
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $240
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $208
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $196.5
No position
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $181.3
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $164.61
Yes position
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in January 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $154.62
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?
Ends Jan 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $153.99
Yes position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- $120
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $112.06
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $104.86
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $102.59
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $85.45
No position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $60
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $30.11
No position
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27
No position
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $21.83
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.16
No position
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14
Yes position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.19
No position
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.4
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$7.27
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$8
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US forces enter Iran by December 31?No 62% 500 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Yes 42.4% 500 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?No 0.6% 19,700 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?No 2% 6,698.74 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Yes 80% 1,280.63 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?No 19% 1,000 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?No 15.7% 1,000 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?No 22.6% 27.54 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?No 24.7% 472.46 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Yes 43% 240 shares
- Trump out as President before 2027?Yes 16% 2,000 shares
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?No 81% 300.66 shares