Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $45.41K
- Potential profit
- $45.41K
- User PnL
- -$129.97
Polymarket Trader
0xF5A202bb5315Ecd8Aea13DD4A7Af2620972cC1B9-1761782383366
0xf5a202bb5315ecd8aea13dd4a7af2620972cc1b9
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $490.74
- Realized PnL
- $319.49
- Win rate
- 33.3%
- Open positions
- 14
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.4%
- Current value
- $352.86
- Potential payout
- $5.56K
- Potential profit
- $5.2K
- Multiplier
- 15.75x
- User PnL
- -$240.54
Yes position
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.9%
- Current value
- $78.65
- Potential payout
- $1.15K
- Potential profit
- $1.07K
- Multiplier
- 14.60x
- User PnL
- -$23.44
Yes position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $921.99
- Potential profit
- $921.99
- User PnL
- -$80
Yes position
Will HSBC fail by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $1.03
- Potential payout
- $688.34
- Potential profit
- $687.31
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$18.97
Yes position
Will Citigroup fail by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $2.72
- Potential payout
- $680.39
- Potential profit
- $677.67
- Multiplier
- 250.00x
- User PnL
- -$17.28
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $47.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $452.5
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$2.5
Yes position
Will Scotiabank fail by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $2.43
- Potential payout
- $486.46
- Potential profit
- $484.02
- Multiplier
- 200.00x
- User PnL
- -$17.57
Yes position
Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.62
- Potential payout
- $412.69
- Potential profit
- $412.07
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$19.38
Yes position
Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $1.7
- Potential payout
- $340.63
- Potential profit
- $338.92
- Multiplier
- 200.00x
- User PnL
- -$18.3
Yes position
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.52
- Potential payout
- $208.33
- Potential profit
- $207.81
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$24.48
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.23
- Potential payout
- $156.25
- Potential profit
- $156.02
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$49.77
Yes position
Megaquake by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $2.43
- Potential payout
- $135.14
- Potential profit
- $132.7
- Multiplier
- 55.56x
- User PnL
- -$47.57
Yes position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.04
- Potential payout
- $71.43
- Potential profit
- $71.39
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$19.96
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $172.94
Yes position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $104.34
No position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $64.35
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.11
Yes position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.89
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.34
Gold position
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.49
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
Ends Feb 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.7
Yes position
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?
Ends Jan 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET
Ends Feb 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$7.69
Yes position
Natural Disaster in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 22%
- Multiplier
- 4.55x
- User PnL
- -$7.98
Yes position
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?
Ends Jan 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?
Ends Jan 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will Tim Walz resign by January 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$19
Yes position
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,975-$5,100 in January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Yes 0.2% 35,000 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Yes 0.2% 5,000 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Yes 0.2% 5,000 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Yes 10% 300 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Yes 9% 111.11 shares
- US forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes 53% 94.34 shares
- US forces enter Iran by March 31?Yes 16% 156.25 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ETUp 99% 7.7 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ETUp 64% 7.71 shares
- Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes 1.2% 1,736.09 shares
- Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes 1.2% 837.67 shares
- US government shutdown Saturday?No 0.6% 1,666.67 shares