No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $33.4
- Potential payout
- $38.17
- Potential profit
- $4.77
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $3.11
Polymarket Trader
PoliAlespolign
0xf5b057f8286fa8d986f131522f314bac737e38c4
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $156.35
- Realized PnL
- $3.8K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $28.96
- Potential payout
- $32
- Potential profit
- $3.04
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.88
No position
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 84%
- Current value
- $21.82
- Potential payout
- $25.98
- Potential profit
- $4.16
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $4.95
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.6%
- Current value
- $1.51
- Potential payout
- $22.89
- Potential profit
- $21.38
- Multiplier
- 15.15x
- User PnL
- -$5.94
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $9.94
- Potential payout
- $9.96
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $0.8
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Current value
- $7
- Potential payout
- $7.1
- Potential profit
- $0.1
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.97
No position
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Current value
- $6.46
- Potential payout
- $6.69
- Potential profit
- $0.23
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.44
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $4.82
- Potential payout
- $5.84
- Potential profit
- $1.02
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- -$0.26
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $5.24
- Potential payout
- $5.48
- Potential profit
- $0.25
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.29
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $5.43
- Potential payout
- $5.47
- Potential profit
- $0.04
- User PnL
- $1.33
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $4.38
- Potential payout
- $4.39
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.3
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Current value
- $1.99
- Potential payout
- $4.38
- Potential profit
- $2.38
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- -$0.02
No position
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83%
- Current value
- $3.5
- Potential payout
- $4.22
- Potential profit
- $0.72
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $3.63
- Potential payout
- $4.15
- Potential profit
- $0.52
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $3.69
- Potential payout
- $3.99
- Potential profit
- $0.3
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $2.65
- Potential payout
- $3.55
- Potential profit
- $0.91
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- $0.27
Yes position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 26.5%
- Current value
- $0.92
- Potential payout
- $3.46
- Potential profit
- $2.55
- Multiplier
- 3.77x
- User PnL
- -$0.12
No position
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 76%
- Current value
- $2.3
- Potential payout
- $3.02
- Potential profit
- $0.73
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- -$0.24
No position
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $2.19
- Potential payout
- $2.44
- Potential profit
- $0.26
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $0.21
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90%
- Current value
- $1.81
- Potential payout
- $2.01
- Potential profit
- $0.2
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $0.12
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 69.5%
- Current value
- $1.35
- Potential payout
- $1.95
- Potential profit
- $0.59
- Multiplier
- 1.44x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Current value
- $1.88
- Potential payout
- $1.95
- Potential profit
- $0.07
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.46
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $0.63
- Potential payout
- $1.88
- Potential profit
- $1.25
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- $0.07
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Current value
- $0.87
- Potential payout
- $1.59
- Potential profit
- $0.73
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- $0.01
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Down position
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 10?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $285.57
Nongshim Red Force position
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Ends Apr 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $212.91
Heroic position
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $210.94
Vitality position
Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5)
Ends Mar 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $209.59
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $196.97
KT Rolster position
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5)
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $188.06
REIGNITE FOXX position
Valorant: REIGNITE FOXX vs Fennel - Map 2 Winner
Ends Mar 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $184.01
Dplus KIA position
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 1 Winner
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $168.5
Team Envy position
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Team Envy (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha
Ends Apr 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $164.01
Top Esports position
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner
Ends Apr 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $162.69
Team Vitality position
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
Ends Apr 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $161.69
Eternal Fire position
Valorant: BBL Esports vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner
Ends Apr 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $158.28
KT Rolster position
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5)
Ends Apr 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $152.99
Sentinels position
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $137.42
Leviatán Esports position
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $129.56
Fnatic position
LoL: Fnatic vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner
Ends Apr 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $129.33
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $127.29
Dignitas position
LoL: Dignitas vs LYON - Game 1 Winner
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $123.86
Kiwoom DRX position
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Ends Apr 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $123.15
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $115.69
Top Esports position
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5)
Ends Apr 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $115.11
Top Esports position
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner
Ends Apr 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $113.36
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $112.33
Vitality position
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5)
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $112.33
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 46% 4.37 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No 76% 1.58 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 55% 2.73 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 55% 0.04 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 55% 2.18 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 54% 6.54 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 31% 1.86 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 52% 7.11 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 30% 3.73 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 47% 2.15 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 38% 2.48 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 37% 0.15 shares