No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $905
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $95
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $99.53
Polymarket Trader
CosmooKramer
0xf5ba73e13697872633ea3d20076a1d91135a5b5e
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $8.2K
- Realized PnL
- $2.53K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Current value
- $965.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $34.5
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- -$5.7
No position
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86%
- Current value
- $860
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $140
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $30.5
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $790.7
- Potential payout
- $799.9
- Potential profit
- $9.2
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $143.15
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $670.95
- Potential payout
- $700
- Potential profit
- $29.05
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $131.55
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $547.8
- Potential payout
- $550
- Potential profit
- $2.2
- User PnL
- $15.46
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.1%
- Current value
- $485.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $14.5
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $8.62
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.3%
- Current value
- $491.25
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $8.75
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- -$0.45
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.6%
- Current value
- $477.99
- Potential payout
- $499.99
- Potential profit
- $22
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- -$1.97
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $342
- Potential payout
- $344.93
- Potential profit
- $2.93
- User PnL
- $2.53
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $298.47
- Potential payout
- $300.12
- Potential profit
- $1.65
- User PnL
- $28.82
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $298.65
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $1.35
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Current value
- $103
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $97
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $161
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $39
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $153
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $47
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $2
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Current value
- $102.75
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $47.25
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- -$3.25
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $98.18
- Potential payout
- $117.58
- Potential profit
- $19.4
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $0.68
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $95.15
- Potential payout
- $110
- Potential profit
- $14.85
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- -$0.65
Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.3%
- Current value
- $15.25
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $84.75
- Multiplier
- 6.56x
- User PnL
- $4.35
No position
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Current value
- $96.3
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $3.7
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $41.78
No position
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $86.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $13.5
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $0.7
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $95.43
- Potential payout
- $96.54
- Potential profit
- $1.11
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- -$0.14
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $44.39
- Potential payout
- $79.98
- Potential profit
- $35.59
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- $0.4
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $14.9
- Potential payout
- $76.6
- Potential profit
- $61.7
- Multiplier
- 5.14x
- User PnL
- -$0.27
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $465.23
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $257.74
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $254.76
No position
Iran leadership change by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $178.08
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $166.96
Yes position
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $164.47
Patriots position
Patriots vs. Broncos
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $155.24
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $114.56
Iraq position
Spread: France (-2.5)
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $70
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.9
No position
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $64.76
No position
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.67
No position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $54
No position
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52.24
No position
Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Multiplier
- 12.50x
- User PnL
- $49.55
Yes position
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.45
Texans position
Texans vs. Steelers
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.5
No position
Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.8
Yes position
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.52
No position
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36
Yes position
Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.51
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.58
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?Yes 57% 102 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 71% 15 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 53% 100 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?No 99% 44.93 shares
- Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 96.6% 400 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No 91% 400 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?No 98.3% 200 shares
- Iran leadership change by June 30?No 99.4% 9.99 shares
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes 9.1% 500 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No 91% 300 shares
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No 94.3% 194.73 shares
- Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No 99.2% 10 shares