No position
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
Ends Jul 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $15.83
- Potential payout
- $166.67
- Potential profit
- $150.83
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$4.17
Polymarket Trader
0xf624...43f9
0xf624e8f22f0ac7cd842126409f3d7912146f43f9
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $295.31
- Realized PnL
- $180.01
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7%
- Current value
- $4.87
- Potential payout
- $70
- Potential profit
- $65.14
- Multiplier
- 14.39x
- User PnL
- -$2.13
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 19.7%
- Current value
- $13.64
- Potential payout
- $69.39
- Potential profit
- $55.76
- Multiplier
- 5.09x
- User PnL
- -$0.47
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $34.3
- Potential payout
- $65.34
- Potential profit
- $31.04
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- $4.25
Yes position
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.6%
- Current value
- $5.95
- Potential payout
- $43.75
- Potential profit
- $37.8
- Multiplier
- 7.35x
- User PnL
- -$1.05
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 88%
- Current value
- $37.54
- Potential payout
- $42.66
- Potential profit
- $5.12
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $3.54
Yes position
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $10.2
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $29.8
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- $0.2
Yes position
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.02
- Potential payout
- $38.04
- Potential profit
- $38.02
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$6.98
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $2.86
- Potential payout
- $35.71
- Potential profit
- $32.86
- Multiplier
- 12.50x
- User PnL
- -$7.14
No position
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $25.23
- Potential payout
- $29.16
- Potential profit
- $3.94
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $1.23
Yes position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 31%
- Current value
- $7.75
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $17.25
- Multiplier
- 3.23x
- User PnL
- $0.75
Yes position
Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 17, 2027- Implied probability
- 53%
- Current value
- $12.62
- Potential payout
- $23.81
- Potential profit
- $11.19
- Multiplier
- 1.89x
- User PnL
- $2.62
No position
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.2%
- Current value
- $19.22
- Potential payout
- $22.05
- Potential profit
- $2.83
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- -$0.78
Yes position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Current value
- $19.57
- Potential payout
- $21.28
- Potential profit
- $1.7
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$0.43
Yes position
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.4%
- Current value
- $6.69
- Potential payout
- $18.92
- Potential profit
- $12.23
- Multiplier
- 2.83x
- User PnL
- -$0.31
Yes position
Will Marcye Scott win the 2026 GA-13 special election?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Current value
- $12.92
- Potential payout
- $18.87
- Potential profit
- $5.94
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- $2.92
Yes position
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.2%
- Current value
- $7
- Potential payout
- $18.32
- Potential profit
- $11.32
- Multiplier
- 2.62x
- User PnL
- -$0
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $6.92
- Potential payout
- $16.28
- Potential profit
- $9.36
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- -$0.08
Yes position
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Current value
- $6.59
- Potential payout
- $16.28
- Potential profit
- $9.69
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- -$0.41
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.5%
- Current value
- $4.61
- Potential payout
- $15.63
- Potential profit
- $11.02
- Multiplier
- 3.39x
- User PnL
- -$0.39
N
No position
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $15.35
- Potential payout
- $15.36
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $1.35
N
No position
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $13.87
- Potential payout
- $13.89
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $3.87
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.59
- Potential profit
- $12.59
- User PnL
- -$3.84
N
No position
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $11.76
- Potential payout
- $11.76
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $1.76
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.56
No position
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.52
Yes position
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.05
No position
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.92
Yes position
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.91
Y
Yes position
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.22
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.59
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.3%
- Multiplier
- 18.87x
- User PnL
- $9.17
Y
Yes position
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.51
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.92
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $6.29
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 69.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.44x
- User PnL
- $6.12
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.11
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $5.04
No position
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- $4.99
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.94
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.85
No position
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.71
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.62
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 30.5%
- Multiplier
- 3.28x
- User PnL
- $2.91
No position
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.66
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- $2.1
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.67
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.62
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?No 64% 31.17 shares
- Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?No 48% 31.25 shares
- Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?Yes 62% 11.29 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?Yes 86.9% 11.51 shares
- Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?No 90.8% 7.71 shares
- Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026No 92.4% 10.82 shares
- Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026No 90.7% 11.03 shares
- Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026No 90.7% 11.03 shares
- Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?No 91.5% 7.65 shares
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes 38.2% 18.32 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 94% 10.64 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 94% 10.64 shares