No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?
Ends Oct 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $29.46K
- Potential profit
- $29.46K
- User PnL
- -$2.72K
Polymarket Trader
calark
0xf6364d03b43056858c24d1d833a51f780c5cb088
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $7.1K
- Realized PnL
- $11.09K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 14
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $6.44K
- Potential payout
- $9.01K
- Potential profit
- $2.57K
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- -$1.44K
Yes position
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 2%
- Current value
- $94.42
- Potential payout
- $4.72K
- Potential profit
- $4.63K
- Multiplier
- 50.00x
- User PnL
- -$550.25
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.5K
- User PnL
- -$497.2
Yes position
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $4.54
- Potential payout
- $1.01K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$46.87
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $870.37
- Potential profit
- $870.37
- User PnL
- -$255
No position
Will Trump sue the BBC?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $706.92
- Potential profit
- $706.92
- User PnL
- -$393.76
No position
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $432.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $67.5
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $57.5
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% and 9%?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 22%
- Current value
- $103.75
- Potential payout
- $471.58
- Potential profit
- $367.83
- Multiplier
- 4.55x
- User PnL
- $14.15
Yes position
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $144.26
- Potential profit
- $144.26
- User PnL
- -$40.25
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% and 6%?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $13.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $86.5
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$10.5
No position
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $65
- Potential profit
- $65
- User PnL
- -$9.1
No position
Will Andy Burnham finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $7.4
- Potential payout
- $8
- Potential profit
- $0.6
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $1.16
No position
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$4.2
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.76K
No position
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.68K
No position
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.56K
Yes position
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?
Ends May 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.16K
No position
Will TikTok be banned again before May?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $798.18
No position
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $479.74
Yes position
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $400
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $186.37
Yes position
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $182.71
Yes position
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $157.7
No position
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
Ends May 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $151.8
Yes position
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $120.8
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $76.49
No position
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70.69
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $64.81
No position
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- User PnL
- $64.47
No position
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?
Ends May 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.08
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 51%
- Multiplier
- 1.96x
- User PnL
- $28.24
Yes position
US military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.1
No position
Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $18.18
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.36
No position
Epstein client list released in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.89
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.74
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 80% 482.68 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 86% 227.05 shares
- Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more?Yes 36% 247.98 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 89% 3,000 shares
- Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?No 86% 2,914.28 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 89% 1,800 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 88% 1,000 shares
- Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?No 78% 2,021.47 shares
- Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Yes 55.7% 7,421.14 shares
- Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Yes 53.6% 999.99 shares
- Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?No 79% 100 shares
- Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% and 6%?Yes 24% 6 shares