Yes position
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $309.61
- Potential payout
- $1.67K
- Potential profit
- $1.36K
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- $56.61
Polymarket Trader
riskmanagement467
0xf649af31d4f6c6489931d1b204f5b26bace121f7
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.61K
- Realized PnL
- $906.25
- Win rate
- 62.5%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.08K
- Potential profit
- $1.08K
- User PnL
- -$32.35
No position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.8%
- Current value
- $208.51
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $796.36
- Multiplier
- 4.82x
- User PnL
- -$393.96
Yes position
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $1.77
- Potential payout
- $709.01
- Potential profit
- $707.24
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$9.78
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on IPO day?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $666.55
- Potential profit
- $666.55
- User PnL
- -$3.73
No position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $580.35
- Potential payout
- $641.27
- Potential profit
- $60.92
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $41.48
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $25.6
- Potential payout
- $624.3
- Potential profit
- $598.7
- Multiplier
- 24.39x
- User PnL
- -$36.35
No position
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $550.08
- Potential payout
- $576.3
- Potential profit
- $26.22
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $31.41
Yes position
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $3.6
- Potential payout
- $554.61
- Potential profit
- $551.01
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $0.28
Yes position
Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.49
- Potential payout
- $323.91
- Potential profit
- $323.42
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$60.16
Yes position
Will Nansen launch a token by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $3.08
- Potential payout
- $280
- Potential profit
- $276.92
- Multiplier
- 90.91x
- User PnL
- -$11.72
Yes position
StandX FDV above $5B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $5.68
- Potential payout
- $277
- Potential profit
- $271.32
- Multiplier
- 48.78x
- User PnL
- -$1.8
No position
StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 97.5%
- Current value
- $270.01
- Potential payout
- $276.93
- Potential profit
- $6.92
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $1.16
Yes position
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $3.57
- Potential payout
- $264.49
- Potential profit
- $260.92
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$0.13
No position
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 87%
- Current value
- $205.45
- Potential payout
- $236.15
- Potential profit
- $30.7
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- -$14.17
Yes position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $197.64
- Potential profit
- $197.64
- User PnL
- -$31.62
Yes position
StandX FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 8.2%
- Current value
- $15.63
- Potential payout
- $190.64
- Potential profit
- $175.01
- Multiplier
- 12.20x
- User PnL
- $5.09
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $84.11
- Potential payout
- $146.28
- Potential profit
- $62.17
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- $4.32
No position
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 74.2%
- Current value
- $107.96
- Potential payout
- $145.5
- Potential profit
- $37.54
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- -$4.17
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $109.38
- Potential payout
- $134.23
- Potential profit
- $24.85
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $7.37
Yes position
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.9%
- Current value
- $7.16
- Potential payout
- $121.39
- Potential profit
- $114.23
- Multiplier
- 16.95x
- User PnL
- -$2.45
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $12.43
- Potential payout
- $118.42
- Potential profit
- $105.99
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$1.78
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $101.81
- Potential payout
- $110.07
- Potential profit
- $8.26
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $7.15
No position
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100.42
- Potential profit
- $100.42
- User PnL
- -$25.09
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $557.23
No position
Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $115.04
No position
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $88.16
No position
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 92.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $51.82
No position
Will $MARU reach $900M in Q1?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.69
Yes position
Katana FDV above $50M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.86
No position
Will Trump visit China by March 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.66
No position
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.26
No position
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.4
No position
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.8
No position
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.71
Yes position
Will Japan win Pool C at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?
Ends Mar 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.91
No position
Will Korea win Pool C at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?
Ends Mar 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.8
Yes position
Will Putin visit China by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.3
Yes position
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 9.2%
- Multiplier
- 10.93x
- User PnL
- $0.11
Yes position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Team Falcons win an S tier event in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.38
No position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.4
Yes position
Will Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Yes position
Will Kate Hudson win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.6
Yes position
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.62
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?No 92.6% 6,003.72 shares
- US strike on Mexico by December 31?No 78% 65 shares
- Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?Yes 12% 9 shares
- Trump out as President before 2027?No 85% 20 shares
- Trump out as President before 2027?Yes 16% 10 shares
- US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?Yes 27% 5 shares
- US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?Yes 27% 5 shares
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Yes 15% 6.67 shares
- Will Venezuela become 51st state?No 95.6% 5 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 91.2% 5 shares
- US forces enter Iran by April 30?No 0.3% 200 shares
- Will Putin visit China by May 31?Yes 77% 1.3 shares