Yes position
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $7.25
- Potential payout
- $467.5
- Potential profit
- $460.25
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$2.1
Polymarket Trader
0xf685...1ddc
0xf68590cda8d58411fd7da6ed18b50a3774761ddc
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $218.01
- Realized PnL
- $796.17
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 15
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.9%
- Current value
- $34.88
- Potential payout
- $294.35
- Potential profit
- $259.47
- Multiplier
- 8.44x
- User PnL
- $9.86
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $8.74
- Potential payout
- $83.26
- Potential profit
- $74.52
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$2.91
Yes position
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.2%
- Current value
- $53.23
- Potential payout
- $55.94
- Potential profit
- $2.71
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $3.39
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $38.7
- Potential payout
- $45.26
- Potential profit
- $6.56
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $1.25
No position
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $26.1
- Potential payout
- $28.21
- Potential profit
- $2.12
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.99
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Current value
- $10.31
- Potential payout
- $14.62
- Potential profit
- $4.31
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- $0.66
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $8.38
- Potential payout
- $13.41
- Potential profit
- $5.03
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- $0.29
Yes position
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.8%
- Current value
- $9.83
- Potential payout
- $10.16
- Potential profit
- $0.32
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.18
Yes position
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 25%
- Current value
- $1.79
- Potential payout
- $7.18
- Potential profit
- $5.38
- Multiplier
- 4.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.08
No position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $6.12
- Potential payout
- $6.19
- Potential profit
- $0.07
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.22
No position
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 81%
- Current value
- $3.97
- Potential payout
- $4.9
- Potential profit
- $0.93
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $1.08
No position
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 92%
- Current value
- $2.96
- Potential payout
- $3.22
- Potential profit
- $0.26
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $2.87
- Potential payout
- $3.18
- Potential profit
- $0.3
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- -$0.02
No position
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $2.87
- Potential payout
- $3.14
- Potential profit
- $0.27
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$0.02
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day?
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.13
Yes position
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $86.11
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.52
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.82
No position
Over $4M committed to the Fabric public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.4
Yes position
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.53
No position
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.88
No position
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.86
Yes position
Will Khamenei post 20-39 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?
Ends Mar 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.46
No position
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 24-30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.64
No position
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 10-16?
Ends Feb 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.57
No position
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.26
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $27.03
No position
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.72
Yes position
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.15
No position
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?
Ends Jan 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.05
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.04
Yes position
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 50+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.25
No position
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Union address?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.04
Yes position
Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
Ends Mar 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.35
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.06
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.12
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.94
No position
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.22
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 61% 0.67 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 61% 1.9 shares
- Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?Yes 95% 10.16 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No 66% 14.62 shares
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 8.8% 25.7 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 82% 11.77 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 83% 3.48 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 83% 5.71 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 83% 5.71 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 83% 3.48 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 83% 3.48 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 83% 11.63 shares