Polymarket Trader

0xnapalm

@0xNapalm

0xf6cbda3f48569107ba09fd75b0088bf7e3743f69

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $7.35K
Realized PnL: $6.98K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 17
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $117
Potential payout: $26K
Potential profit: $25.88K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$91.99

Yes position

Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $6.9
Potential payout: $4.6K
Potential profit: $4.59K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$43.7

No position

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $1.7K
Potential payout: $4K
Potential profit: $2.3K
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$300

Yes position

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $2.3K
Potential payout: $4K
Potential profit: $1.7K
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $300

No position

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $1.43K
Potential payout: $1.6K
Potential profit: $168
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $6

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $1.13K
Potential payout: $1.2K
Potential profit: $66
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $262

Yes position

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $36.8
Potential payout: $1.01K
Potential profit: $971.36
Multiplier: 27.40x
User PnL: -$3.2

Yes position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $186.96
Potential payout: $869.57
Potential profit: $682.61
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$13.04

No position

Aligned FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 71%
Current value: $213
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $87
Multiplier: 1.41x
User PnL: -$22

Yes position

Hurupay FDV above $5M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $117.47
Potential payout: $247.31
Potential profit: $129.84
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: $35.62

Yes position

H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $9.12
Potential payout: $96.03
Potential profit: $86.91
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$10.88

No position

Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 98.5%
Current value: $49.25
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $0.75
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.25

No position

Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 62%
Current value: $20.83
Potential payout: $33.59
Potential profit: $12.76
Multiplier: 1.61x
User PnL: $2.35

Yes position

Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 29.5%
Current value: $8.85
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $21.15
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: -$10.35

Yes position

Will Exponent launch a token by September 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 28.9%
Current value: $5.77
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $14.23
Multiplier: 3.47x
User PnL: -$4.23

No position

Aligned FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $12.51
Potential payout: $15.94
Potential profit: $3.43
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: -$2.63

No position

Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 28%
Current value: $0.35
Potential payout: $1.25
Potential profit: $0.9
Multiplier: 3.57x
User PnL: -$0.3

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will edgeX launch a token in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $768.62

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $595.38

No position

Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $535.52

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $464.75

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $451.16

No position

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $418.52

No position

Will Sentient launch a token in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $379.34

Yes position

Will Kodiak launch a token by December 31, 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $371.12

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $357.85

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $246

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $244.16

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $218

Yes position

Owlto FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $192.06

No position

Ranger FDV above $20M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $180.43

No position

Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 39.5%
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: $173.38

No position

EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $170.95

No position

MegaETH FDV above $2B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $163.35

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: $162.06

Yes position

ETHGAS FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $158.43

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $153.05

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $149.46

No position

Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $142.5

No position

Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $140.99

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $140

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?

Yes 23% 869.57 shares
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Yes 84% 238.15 shares
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Yes 83.9% 357.38 shares
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 13% 715.55 shares
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?

Yes 4% 1,008.16 shares
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 14.5% 524.86 shares
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5

Over 12% 10 shares
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5

Over 53% 50.71 shares
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)

IR Iran 57% 60.78 shares
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

No 56.5% 100 shares
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?

Yes 34% 100 shares
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

No 41% 48.78 shares