N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $316.25
- Potential profit
- $316.25
- User PnL
- -$39.07
Polymarket Trader
0xf6d381496df0845e68b7387f921C44f176757E6C-1781007749416
0xf6d381496df0845e68b7387f921c44f176757e6c
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $92.95
- Realized PnL
- $38.22
- Win rate
- 79.2%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$22.6
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $21.38
- Potential payout
- $25.01
- Potential profit
- $3.63
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $7.42
Yes position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $0.9
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $19.1
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.3
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 80%
- Current value
- $12
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $3
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- $1.35
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $0.98
- Potential payout
- $13
- Potential profit
- $12.03
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.59
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12
- Potential profit
- $12
- User PnL
- -$1.08
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Current value
- $9.66
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $0.35
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $1.44
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?
Ends Jul 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Current value
- $4.55
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $5.45
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- $0.05
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 26.5%
- Current value
- $2.65
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $7.35
- Multiplier
- 3.77x
- User PnL
- -$0.45
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Current value
- $5.05
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $4.95
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- -$1.28
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?
Ends Jul 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 62%
- Current value
- $6.2
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $3.8
- Multiplier
- 1.61x
- User PnL
- $1.1
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.4%
- Current value
- $4.87
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.13
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.1
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 64.5%
- Current value
- $3.23
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $1.78
- Multiplier
- 1.55x
- User PnL
- $1.08
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$3.4
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?
Ends Jul 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.5%
- Current value
- $1.78
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $3.23
- Multiplier
- 2.82x
- User PnL
- -$0.08
No position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.7%
- Current value
- $2.54
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $2.46
- Multiplier
- 1.97x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$3.9
No position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $4.03
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.97
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $0.18
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $4.53
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.47
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $1.03
N
No position
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.7%
- Current value
- $4.78
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.22
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.63
No position
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 77%
- Current value
- $3.85
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $1.15
- Multiplier
- 1.30x
- User PnL
- $0.6
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$3.76
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$3.25
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $7.68
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.28
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.88
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Multiplier
- 80.00x
- User PnL
- $2.8
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.35
Yes position
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.2
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.7%
- Multiplier
- 37.74x
- User PnL
- $2.01
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $1.95
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.65
No position
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.02
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.68
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.6
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.45
Yes position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.45
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.1%
- Multiplier
- 7.09x
- User PnL
- $0.4
N
No position
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 89%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $0.35
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.25
No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.12
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 49.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?Yes 31% 5 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?Yes 31% 5 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 56% 5 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?Yes 42% 18 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 26% 5 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 79% 5 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?Yes 74% 5 shares
- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No 52.6% 5 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?No 57% 5 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No 70% 5 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?No 58% 5 shares
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?Yes 6% 20 shares