Flobodan

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $89.54
Potential payout: $381
Potential profit: $291.47
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: $21.93

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 20.2%
Current value: $67.67
Potential payout: $335.01
Potential profit: $267.34
Multiplier: 4.95x
User PnL: $1.46

Yes position

Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $1.22
Potential payout: $305
Potential profit: $303.78
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$29.98

Yes position

Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $300.01
Potential profit: $299.86
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$10.56

Yes position

Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $299.85
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$10.56

Yes position

Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $299.85
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$10.56

Yes position

Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $299.85
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$10.56

Yes position

Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $299.85
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$10.56

Yes position

Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $299.85
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$10.56

Yes position

Will David Luna Sánchez win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $299.85
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$10.56

Yes position

Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $299.85
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$10.56

Yes position

Will Daniel Quintero win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $299.85
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$10.56

Yes position

Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $299.85
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$10.56

Yes position

Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $299.85
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$10.56

Yes position

Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $299.85
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$10.56

Yes position

Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $299.85
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$10.56

Yes position

Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $299.85
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$10.56

Yes position

Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $299.85
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$10.56

Yes position

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $42.18
Potential payout: $263.64
Potential profit: $221.46
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: $13

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $119.79
Potential payout: $232.6
Potential profit: $112.81
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: $19.33

Yes position

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $51.89
Potential payout: $203.5
Potential profit: $151.61
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: -$1.02

Yes position

Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.1
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $199.9
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$14.9

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $618.49

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $488.33

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $477.27

Yes position

US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?

Ends Jan 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $307.52

No position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: $249.71

Yes position

Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $249.09

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?

Ends Oct 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $243.93

Yes position

US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $225.97

Yes position

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 97.9%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $205.49

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $189.35

No position

Nothing Ever Happens: January

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $187.25

No position

Will all remaining Trump cabinet picks be confirmed?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $173.95

Yes position

Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11?

Ends Jan 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $168.5

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $148.54

Yes position

Will Trump designate ANTIFA a terrorist organization by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $148.32

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $139.58

Yes position

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $134.67

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $133.82

Yes position

Will Trump sue the BBC?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $130.7

Yes position

US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $130.53

No position

Will the US strike Iran next?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $129.47

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $113.75

No position

Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $112.47

Yes position

Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31?